Jun 2026
Outperforming buy and hold on Tesla
How the Market Wave algorithm returned 184% on TSLA.
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The text of every slide in Outperforming buy and hold on Tesla, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR STOCKS Outperforming buy and hold on Tesla How the Market Wave algorithm returned 184% on TSLA, more than triple the 55% buy-and-hold result. The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto clients run every day, applied unchanged to a single stock: Tesla (TSLA). ArchPublic.com June 2026
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WHY THIS CASE STUDY, AND WHY NOW The same algorithm our crypto clients run, pointed at a single stock We did not build a new model. We took the exact Market Wave engine, the trend and momentum capture logic that rides confirmed moves and steps aside when the trend is gone, and ran it on TSLA two ways. Both backtests start from the same $100,000 in cash, zero shares, and both end June 16, 2026. LONG-TERM DAILY Jun 2023 to Jun 2026 · three years +184.58% Market Wave +55.32% Tesla buy and hold +129.26 points of outperformance SHORT-TERM 4-HOUR Jan 2025 to Jun 2026 · about 18 months +50.56% Market Wave +5.41% Tesla buy and hold +45.16 points of outperformance Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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THE SUBJECT A great company, a sideways stock This is not a bear case. A dominant EV franchise, an energy arm, self-driving software, the robotaxi and Optimus programs. And yet the stock has gone almost nowhere in a straight line, and everywhere in a jagged one. THREE YEARS OF TSLA, MEASURED FROM A JUNE 2023 ENTRY June 2023 entry ~$260 baseline Spring 2025 drawdown high $200s +12% All-time high · Dec 22, 2025 $498.83 +92% Early 2026 pullback ~$430 +65% Close · June 16, 2026 $404.66 +56% THE OPPORTUNITY COST Same three years, same belief in a technology leader. A very different result. +1,100% Nvidia, the clearest beneficiary of the AI and compute buildout +55% Tesla buy and hold, same window Price levels per public market data, as of June 16, 2026. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA A great company in a range is the hardest thing to hold The story keeps you in Every rally says the breakout is finally here, so you add or refuse to trim. Every decline says the thesis is broken, so you freeze or capitulate near the lows. The volatility keeps you reacting Endless deliveries, regulatory headlines, and personality-driven sentiment make Tesla the purest version of this trap on the market. Decision fatigue does the rest It asks for hundreds of decisions across years. As high-stakes choices pile up, decision quality falls: buy a little high, sell a little low, give the range back. This is the problem an algorithm is built to solve. Not to predict Tesla, but to remove the bias that turns a tradeable range into a frustrating round trip.
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THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same one already running across crypto. It does three things with rules instead of emotions. The effect on a range-bound stock: the algorithm treats the range as the opportunity, not the enemy. It works the swings and accumulates shares at disciplined prices, while a holder simply absorbs the full round trip.
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SCENARIO 1 · THE LONG-TERM DAILY CHART Three years, same logic, run on the daily Jun 16, 2023 — Jun 16, 2026 $100,000 BECAME $284,580 +184.58% Market Wave +55.32% Buy and hold HOW THE VALUE WAS BUILT Realized profit, banked $158,667 Unrealized, open position $25,913 Shares held · avg cost 583 · $360.21 Cash on hand $48,664 The majority of the gain, over $158,000, was realized. The algorithm did not ride one lucky position. It converted volatility into banked cash, redeployed it, and still finished holding shares below the close. Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SCENARIO 2 · THE SHORT-TERM 4-HOUR CHART The whipsaw test, on the 4-hour Jan 1, 2025 — Jun 16, 2026 $100,000 BECAME $150,565 +50.56% Market Wave +5.41% Buy and hold HOW THE VALUE WAS BUILT Realized profit, banked $44,682 Unrealized, open position $5,883 Shares held · avg cost 292 · $377.93 Cash on hand $34,326 The cleanest illustration of the thesis. Where simply holding paid 5.41%, a rules-based approach to the same price action paid roughly nine times more, and again did it mostly through realized, banked gains. Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SIDE BY SIDE The same stock, four different outcomes Metric Long-term daily Jun 2023 — Jun 2026 Short-term 4-hour Jan 2025 — Jun 2026 Starting capital $100,000.00 $100,000.00 Strategy ending value $284,580.54 $150,564.86 Strategy ROI +184.58% +50.56% Tesla buy and hold ROI +55.32% +5.41% Outperformance vs buy and hold +129.26 pts +45.16 pts Realized profit, banked $158,667.36 $44,681.60 Unrealized profit, open $25,913.18 $5,883.26 Shares held at end · avg cost 583 · $360.21 292 · $377.93 Cash on hand at end $48,663.76 $34,325.50 Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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WHY THE GAP IS SO LARGE Realized gains versus the round trip The algorithm: conversion It harvested the range over and over, selling strength and re-entering on confirmation. In both tests, realized cash dwarfed the open position. Scenario 1 realized $158,667 / $184,580 Scenario 2 realized $44,682 / $50,565 Roughly 86 to 88% of all gains were banked, not paper. Buy and hold: one decision A holder owns exactly one decision: hold. It captures the full upside of a trend and the full pain of every reversal in between. Over the 18-month window it lived through a 70%-plus round trip to Tesla's all-time high and back, and was paid almost nothing for the ride. +55% three years +5% volatile 18 months The edge is not prediction. It is conversion: turning the same volatility that frustrates the holder into a series of realized gains and a lower average cost basis on the shares it keeps. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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THE REAL LESSON Discipline beats conviction in a range 01 Great companies do not go up in a straight line Tesla is a genuine technology story, and the stock still delivered a fraction of what the AI leaders returned. Belief in the business is not the same as being paid by the stock. THE STOCK KEEPS ITS OWN TIMELINE 02 Opportunity cost is real Capital tied up in a range-bound name, even a beloved one, is capital not compounding elsewhere. A passive holder gave up an enormous amount of potential return to the market's indecision. IDLE CAPITAL DOES NOT COMPOUND 03 Decision fatigue is the enemy A volatile great company demands a relentless series of emotional decisions, and decision quality degrades as those demands pile up. The likely human outcome is a steady drip of suboptimal calls. QUALITY FALLS AS CHOICES PILE UP A rules-based approach addresses all three at once. It does not get tired, fall in love with the story, or freeze at the lows. It removes the bias and executes the plan, which in a stock like Tesla is precisely where the return potential lives.
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A PATH FORWARD Tesla is the first of many Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the same algorithms our crypto clients trust to individual stocks including Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and SpaceX. The architecture is unchanged. Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions The algorithm executes the plan so emotions do not. Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.