Jun 2026
Discipline with awareness on QQQ
How the Market Wave algorithm beat dollar-cost averaging in every window we tested.
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The text of every slide in Discipline with awareness on QQQ, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR ETFS Discipline with awareness on QQQ How the Market Wave algorithm beat dollar-cost averaging in every window, by up to 368 percentage points across five backtests. ArchPublic.com · June 2026 Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 2
WHY THIS STUDY, AND WHY NOW Testing the most trusted advice in investing We did not build a new model. We took the Market Wave engine our crypto clients already run, pointed it at QQQ, and measured it against the disciplined passive approach on the same ground. THE STRATEGY Market Wave The unchanged trend and momentum engine. It rides confirmed moves, takes profit on rules, and steps to cash when the trend is not there. vs THE BENCHMARK Dollar-cost averaging A fixed amount of the same capital, buying QQQ on a schedule, never selling, ignoring price. The steelman of the index-fund playbook. Five windows Two chart intervals $100,000 start, zero shares Ahead in all five
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THE PHILOSOPHY ON TRIAL The Boglehead playbook, and why we respect it When Jack Bogle launched the first index fund, he turned a simple idea into the most trusted advice in investing: stop trying to beat the market, just own it. Millions of Bogleheads now run the same four rules, and for good reason. This is the discipline we set out to test. 01 Own the whole market Buy a broad, low-cost index fund instead of picking stocks. Costs stay low and you capture the market's long-run drift. 02 Buy on a schedule Dollar-cost average a fixed amount at set intervals, regardless of price. No timing, no secondguessing the entry. 03 Hold for decades Never sell on the way. Time in the market, not timing the market, is what compounds a portfolio. 04 Stay the course Ignore the noise, the crashes, the rallies. The whole point is to take human emotion out of the decision. OUR BATTLEGROUND We ran the test on QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 and one of the great long-run wealth builders. We deliberately picked the passive movement's favorite index, on its friendliest terrain, so the comparison is as fair as it gets.
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THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA The same playbook, and its one blind spot Those four rules earned their trust honestly. But the same discipline that protects a Boglehead from emotion also forces a single trade-off, and it is the opening an algorithm is built for. What it gets right, and it is earned Cheap, tax-efficient, and it captures the long-run drift of the market. It solves the single biggest problem in investing: human emotion. By removing the decisions, it removes the panic-selling and euphoria-buying that wreck most investors. What it gives up to get there It buys the same dollar amount at a euphoric top and a generational bottom, because by design it does not look. It never takes a profit into strength, and never raises cash when structure breaks down. One rule, hold and keep buying, with no answer for a crash, an overextension, or a flat decade. The blindness is the feature that delivers the discipline. It is also the limit on what the approach can return.
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THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does It treats market structure as information, not noise. Three jobs, run on rules: 01 Ride confirmed moves It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch, a headline, or a fixed calendar date. 02 Exit on rules, not nerves It takes profit on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding through every reversal on principle. 03 Step aside in chop In indecision and bear markets it holds cash and waits, exactly where the passive playbook keeps buying anyway. One dial tunes it from accumulation to cash yield The only other variables are the window and the chart interval.
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SCENARIO 01 · THE FULL DECADE A decade of owning QQQ for the long haul Jun 2016 → Jun 2026 Daily The algorithm built a position early and held it at a $175 average cost while QQQ climbed toward $724. The large majority of the gain is unrealized, the right posture for a decade-long secular uptrend. REALIZED $50,984 UNREALIZED $438,518 TOTAL P&L $489,502 SHARES HELD 798 AVG COST $175 CASH ON HAND $11,686 Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 29, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SCENARIO 02 · THE COVID CRASH ENTRY Committing capital, then the floor falls out Feb 2020 → Jun 2026 Daily This window opens days before the fastest 30% drawdown in market history. No human had to buy the March 2020 panic, and none had to resist selling the bottom. The rules did both, and still tripled the passive result. REALIZED $51,793 UNREALIZED $98,050 TOTAL P&L $149,843 SHARES HELD 273 AVG COST $365 CASH ON HAND $52,169 Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 29, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SCENARIO 03 · THE 2008 GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS The worst entry point in a generation Oct 2007 → Oct 2012 Daily Starting at the pre-crisis peak, the algorithm stepped to cash through the 2008 collapse and bought back in on confirmation. The hierarchy holds the whole argument: buy and hold last, dollar-cost averaging better, the structure-aware engine won. REALIZED $78,378 SHARES HELD 2,376 CASH ON HAND $178,378 BUY AND HOLD RETURN +25.3% Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued October 7, 2012. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 9
ONE ENGINE, ONE DIAL From accumulation to cash yield The first three scenarios tested time and market regime. The final two test objective, and isolate a capability the passive playbook simply does not have. A single tuning value slides the strategy along a spectrum. Accumulate Keep capital working in shares and build the largest disciplined position you can. Cash yield Harvest the swings into realized cash, for liquidity and less market exposure. Ends holding a large position in shares One tuning value Ends holding almost everything in cash The next two slides prove it the only honest way: same asset, same window, same chart, same benchmark. The only thing that changes is the dial. Both leave the passive baseline far behind.
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SCENARIO 04 · TUNED TO ACCUMULATE The dial set to grow the position Jan 2025 → Jun 2026 4-Hour Where a dollar-cost averager earned a flat 6.6%, the engine stayed almost fully invested the whole time. Almost the entire gain is unrealized, held in a 194-share position. The dial was set to grow. REALIZED $1,485 UNREALIZED $46,940 TOTAL P&L $48,425 SHARES HELD 194 AVG COST $482 CASH ON HAND $7,973 Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 29, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SCENARIO 05 · TUNED FOR CASH YIELD The same window, the dial set to harvest Jan 2025 → Jun 2026 4-Hour Only the tuning value changed from the last slide. The engine finished with zero shares and everything in cash, working the market far harder: $333,807 in trade volume against the accumulation run's $101,714. REALIZED $36,694 UNREALIZED $0 SHARES HELD 0 CASH ON HAND $136,694 TRADE VOLUME $333,807 Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 29, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
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SIDE BY SIDE Five windows, one pattern Each window measured against the dollar-cost-averaging benchmark that represents the passive playbook. Same engine throughout. In every window, the algorithm finished ahead. SCENARIO WINDOW STRATEGY VALUE STRATEGY ROI DCA ROI OUTPERFORMANCE 1 · The full decade 2016 → 2026 Daily $589,502 +489.5% +121.2% +368.3 pts 2 · The COVID crash entry 2020 → 2026 Daily $249,843 +149.8% +48.8% +101 pts 3 · A true bear market 2007 → 2012 Daily $178,378 +78.3% +47.8% +30.5 pts 4 · Tuned to accumulate 2025 → 2026 4-Hour $148,425 +48.4% +6.6% +41.8 pts 5 · Tuned for cash yield 2025 → 2026 4-Hour $136,694 +36.6% +6.6% +30 pts Every window started from the same $100,000 in cash. The do-nothing, all-cash result was 0% in every case. Scenario 3 also beat a buy-and-hold investor, who earned 25.3% from that unlucky 2007 entry. Backtested results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 13
WHY THE GAP IS SO LARGE Awareness versus autopilot Autopilot · dollar-cost averaging One genuinely powerful rule: buy a fixed amount, on a schedule, regardless of price, and never sell. By design it cannot do three things. − Buy more when structure is most favorable. − Take a profit when the trend is overextended. − Raise cash when the trend breaks down. Awareness · Market Wave The edge is that it looks. The realized-versus-unrealized split across the five scenarios is the fingerprint of that awareness. + Built a position early in the decade, at a far better cost basis. + Bought the COVID panic, stepped to cash through the 2008 bear. + Converted chop into a built position or banked cash, on the dial. That is the whole difference. The passive playbook removes emotion by removing sight. The algorithm removes emotion and keeps its eyes open.
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THE REAL LESSON Discipline does not have to be blind 01 The playbook is right about the thing that matters most Discipline beats emotion, costs matter, and time in the market is powerful. It beat doing nothing in all five windows. None of this disputes that. 02 Its one limitation is self-imposed blindness To guarantee it never panics, it agreed never to look at price or structure. On the friendliest terrain, that still left return on the table in every window. 03 You do not have to choose between discipline and awareness A rules-based engine keeps the zero-emotion discipline and adds back the sight it gave up. One dial tunes it to the investor's goal. The passive movement got the hardest part right: take the human emotion out of the decision. The next step is to do that without also taking out the information.
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A PATH FORWARD Rules-based engines, now on the index in your retirement account Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions A single dial tunes from accumulation to cash yield. On its own friendliest terrain, the disciplined passive approach was still beaten in every window. The question worth asking: how much of your long-term capital is invested with its eyes closed? Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.