Jun 2026
Discipline over conviction on MSTR
How the Market Wave algorithm beat the passive benchmark on MSTR.
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Slide 1
CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR STOCKS Discipline over conviction on MSTR How the Market Wave algorithm beat the passive benchmarks by as much as 177% across three backtests on the market's most believed-in stock. ArchPublic.com | June 2026 The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto clients run every day, applied unchanged to a single stock: Strategy (MSTR).
Slide 2
WHY THIS CASE STUDY, AND WHY NOW Our first equities test was a stock that drifted. This one moves violently, and is fiercely believed in. Tesla, our first case study, spent years going sideways. For the second we wanted the opposite kind of test. We took the exact same algorithm, unchanged, and pointed it at MSTR across three windows, each starting from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash. Scenario 1 Daily chart, 3 years +181.5% DCA benchmark +3.7% Scenario 2 Daily chart, post-run +88.7% Buy & hold +8.0% DCA benchmark −13.6% Scenario 3 4-hour chart, 2026 drop +20.2% Buy & hold −26.2% Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 3
THE SUBJECT The market's most believed-in stock, and a violent round trip MSTR built one of the most devoted followings in the market, a community that treats holding as conviction rather than a trade. That belief was rewarded spectacularly, and then it was tested just as hard. $473.8 All-time-high close, November 20, 2024 −75% Drawdown from the peak, to roughly $116 by June 2026 +8.0% All a buy-and-hold investor had to show for the full round trip, more than two years later Price levels per public market data. 10-for-1 split effective August 2024. All-time-high close of $473.8 on November 20, 2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Slide 4
THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA Conviction is not a strategy A 15-bagger followed by a 75% drawdown, while a passionate community insists you should never sell, is the position that quietly does the most damage. Conviction tells you to hold the whole way up, which feels like genius, then to hold the whole way down, which feels like loyalty. It is a reason to be in the stock. It is not a system for deciding when, how much, or at what price. Belief never trims, and never re-enters It never tells you to take a profit into strength or to buy back on confirmation after a washout. Decision fatigue compounds the damage A stock this volatile demands hundreds of emotional calls. Decision quality falls as the stakes pile up. An algorithm takes the bias out It does not predict MSTR and it does not fall in love with it. It executes a plan. For educational purposes only.
Slide 5
THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same one already running across crypto. It does three things with rules instead of emotions, and it treats volatility as the opportunity rather than the enemy. Ride confirmed moves It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch, a headline, or community sentiment. Exit on rules, not nerves It takes profits on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than hoping the move runs forever. Step aside in chop In indecision it holds cash and waits, exactly when human investors tend to overtrade. Backtested results. Trading stocks involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Slide 6
SCENARIO 1 · FULL THREE-YEAR DAILY CHART Through the entire boom and give-back Jun 16, 2023 → Jun 17, 2026 Algorithm return +181.5% $100,000 → $281,529 DCA benchmark +3.7% Realized, banked profit $260,841 Cash on hand at the end $139,661 Every dollar of this return is realized cash. The open position is even underwater on paper, yet the strategy is up 181.5%. Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 7
SCENARIO 2 · POST-RUN DAILY CHART The great stock that went nowhere Mar 1, 2024 → Jun 17, 2026 Algorithm return +88.7% $100,000 → $188,739 Buy & hold +8.0% DCA benchmark −13.6% Realized, banked profit $102,859 Same stock, same window, three outcomes. The strategy beats buy-and-hold and DCA at once, on banked cash alone. Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 8
SCENARIO 3 · SHORT-TERM 4-HOUR CHART A profit in a falling market Jan 1, 2026 → Jun 17, 2026 Algorithm return +20.2% $100,000 → $120,223 Buy & hold −26.2% Algorithm vs. buy & hold +46.4 pts Realized, banked profit $27,357 Holding cost a quarter of your capital. The same price action, traded by rules, turned a profit. Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 9
SIDE BY SIDE Three windows, one pattern Scenario 1 3-year daily +181.5% DCA benchmark +3.7% Banked profit $260,841 Scenario 2 Post-run daily +88.7% Buy & hold +8.0% DCA benchmark −13.6% Banked profit $102,859 Scenario 3 5.5-month 4-hour +20.2% Buy & hold −26.2% Banked profit $27,357 In every window the algorithm finished well ahead of the passive alternative, and did so entirely through realized, banked cash rather than a fortunate open position. Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Slide 10
WHY THE GAP IS SO LARGE Realized cash, not a lucky position In all three scenarios the open position on June 17, 2026 carried an unrealized loss, because MSTR closed below the strategy's average cost. The banked cash alone carried every result. $260,841 Realized in Scenario 1 $102,859 Realized in Scenario 2 $27,357 Realized in Scenario 3 The edge is not prediction, and it is not diamond-handed conviction. It is conversion: turning the volatility that believers simply endured into realized gains and cash on the sidelines. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Slide 11
THE REAL LESSON Discipline beats conviction 01 Conviction is not a strategy Belief told holders to get in and stay in. It never told them when to take a profit, how much to trim, or when to step back in after a washout. 02 The round trip is where it gets expensive A historic run followed by a 75% drawdown is how a 15-bagger turns into a 8.0% buy-and-hold result for the average participant. 03 Decision fatigue makes the investor their own worst enemy The same MSTR price action that produced a 8.0% hold and a 26.2% loss instead produced returns of 88.7% and 20.2% using Arch Public Algorithms. For educational purposes only. Trading stocks involves significant risk.
Slide 12
A PATH FORWARD How much of your portfolio is managed by conviction instead of a strategy? Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the same algorithms our crypto clients trust to individual stocks. Tesla was the first case study. MSTR is the second. Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions The algorithm executes the plan, so emotions do not. Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.