Jul 2026
Getting paid in a bull market
How the Market Wave algorithm beat buy and hold and monthly DCA on GOOGL.
Read the case study: Getting paid in a bull market
The text of every slide in Getting paid in a bull market, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR STOCKS Getting paid in a bull market. How the Market Wave algorithm beat buy and hold and monthly dollar-cost averaging on GOOGL across three backtests. The Market Wave algorithm for equities, built on the rules-based discipline our crypto clients run every day, pointed at a single stock: Alphabet (GOOGL), the company behind Google Search, YouTube, Google Cloud, and Gemini. ArchPublic.com July 2026
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WHY THIS CASE STUDY, AND WHY NOW A winner almost everyone owns, and almost nobody manages We have already shown what Market Wave does on stocks that frustrate investors: Tesla, stuck for years in a jagged range. MSTR, violently volatile. Nvidia, the strongest uptrend almost nobody felt they could buy. Alphabet is a different test. It is one of the most widely held companies on earth, and across our window it delivered one of the strongest runs in big tech. The problem it poses is the quietest and most expensive of all: what do you actually do with a winner while it is winning? Market Wave for equities: a distinct algorithm built on the rules-based discipline our crypto clients trust, pointed at GOOGL. We ran it three ways, all ending July 8, 2026. 1-Hour Jan 1 to Jul 8, 2026 MARKET WAVE STRATEGY +32.7% CASH YIELD AT ALL-TIME HIGHS Buy and hold +14.5% Monthly DCA +7.9% Weekly Jul 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2026 MARKET WAVE STRATEGY +116.4% CASH YIELD THROUGH THE BULL RUN Buy and hold +95.0% Monthly DCA +66.4% Daily Jul 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2026 MARKET WAVE STRATEGY +120.7% SAME WINDOW, TUNED TO ACCUMULATE Buy and hold +90.5% Monthly DCA +66.2% All three backtests start from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash and zero shares. The weekly and daily runs cover the identical two-year window on two chart intervals. Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 02 / 12
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THE SUBJECT The winner everyone owns and nobody manages Alphabet is the holding company behind Google Search, YouTube, Android, Cloud, Waymo, and the Gemini models. When people say they are in the market, they very often mean, in part, that they own Alphabet. Split-adjusted, the price tells a story of a powerful but repeatedly tested uptrend. Late 2022 Bear-market low as rates rose ~$83 2024 AI build-out recovery, full-year return +36% Aug 2024 Federal ruling: illegal search monopoly shock Sep 2025 Remedies decision, no breakup, +8% in a day +8% May 18, 2026 All-time-high close $408.61 Jul 2026 Pullback, about 12% off the record ~$360 Two-year window (weekly, daily) ~$185 to ~$360 Six-month window (1-hour) ~$314 to $408.61 to ~$360 THE 2026 BACKDROP $408.61 All-time-high close, May 18, 2026 $400B+ Annual revenue, a first for Alphabet +60% Google Cloud growth, year over year 750M Gemini monthly active users THE CATCH Alphabet did not go straight up. A monopoly ruling, an AI scare, a tariff shock, and a roughly 12% drop from its own May 2026 record, all inside a two-year window in which it still nearly doubled. Owning the winner was easy. Deciding when to buy more, when to take some off, and when to sit still was the hard part. Mid 2022 Post 20-for-1 split price ~$108 Price levels per public market data, split-adjusted. Business figures per Alphabet quarterly reporting. For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 03 / 12
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THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA A winner is only worth what you take off the table A losing stock is easy: cut it or do not. A winner is harder, because doing nothing feels exactly like winning, right up until it does not. Alphabet spent two years rewarding the people who held it, which is precisely why so few of them ever banked a dollar of the reward. The paper-gain trap Every dollar is unrealized until you sell, and stays exposed to the next drawdown. When Alphabet fell about 12% from its record into July, holders gave back a slice of a gain they had never actually collected. Real on the screen. Never real in the account. The "it is too high" freeze Every new record made the next share look expensive, so the disciplined waited and the impulsive cracked and chased the top. Both are the same error: letting the price you remember, or the price you fear missing, make the decision instead of a rule. Never taking a profit Buy-and-never-sell is sound for a broad index fund held for thirty years. On a single stock in a fast uptrend, it hardens into a refusal to ever ring the register, so a two-year double becomes a paper double the next correction can quietly tax back. Monthly dollar-cost averaging cures the first two, and it beat doing nothing in all three windows. But it buys the same dollar amount at $185 and at $400, paying ever-higher prices for an ever-smaller slice, and like buy and hold it never sells. It cures the panic by agreeing never to look. The opening a rules-based engine is built for: keep the freedom from emotion, add back awareness of price, and treat taking profit as normal. 04 / 12
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THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm for equities, built on the rules-based discipline proven across crypto for our clients. It does three things with rules instead of emotions. Ride confirmed moves It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch, a headline, or a feeling that a price is too high or too low. Exit on rules, not nerves It takes profits into strength on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding every share on principle. Step aside cleanly In chop and indecision it is willing to hold cash and wait, which is exactly when human investors tend to overtrade. One engine, two jobs On a slower chart it leans toward accumulation, building a low-cost-basis position for the long trend. On a faster chart it leans toward cash yield, working the swings and banking realized profit again and again. The only variables that follow are the time window and the chart interval. Backtested results. Trading stocks involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 05 / 12
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SCENARIO 1 OF 3 · CASH YIELD AT ALL-TIME HIGHS The 1-hour chart, January to July 2026 GOOGL · NASDAQ Jan 1 to Jul 8, 2026 Entries / DCA adds Exits, profit taken Trend / DCA marker The stock opens near $314, already an expensive-looking winner, runs through its $408.61 record, then absorbs the roughly 12% pullback. At all-time highs the engine did not freeze and did not chase. It worked the swings and got paid. STRATEGY ENDING VALUE $132,690 +32.7% from $100,000 start · +$32,690 total P&L RETURN VS PASSIVE BENCHMARKS Market Wave +32.7% Buy and hold +14.5% Monthly DCA +7.9% +18.2 pts vs buy and hold +24.8 pts vs DCA HOW THE GAIN WAS BUILT 77% banked as cash $25,242 $7,448 368 shares at end $340 avg cost basis $162 cash on hand REALIZED OPEN Backtested from a 1-hour-chart trade schedule, valued July 8, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 06 / 12
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SCENARIO 2 OF 3 · CASH YIELD THROUGH THE BULL RUN The weekly chart, July 2024 to July 2026 GOOGL · NASDAQ Jul 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2026 Entries / DCA adds Exits, profit taken Trend / DCA marker Across two years in which Alphabet nearly doubled off a July 2024 level near $185, the engine worked the weekly swings and beat a strong 95% buy and hold, and it did so while finishing the period mostly in cash. This is what "tuned for cash yield" looks like. STRATEGY ENDING VALUE $216,407 +116.4% from $100,000 start · +$116,407 total P&L RETURN VS PASSIVE BENCHMARKS Market Wave +116.4% Buy and hold +95.0% Monthly DCA +66.4% +21.4 pts vs buy and hold +50.0 pts vs DCA HOW THE GAIN WAS BUILT 75% banked, ended 60%+ in cash $87,779 $28,629 223 shares at end $233 avg cost basis $135,913 cash on hand REALIZED OPEN Backtested from a weekly-chart trade schedule, valued July 8, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 07 / 12
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SCENARIO 3 OF 3 · SAME WINDOW, TUNED TO ACCUMULATE The daily chart, July 2024 to July 2026 GOOGL · NASDAQ Jul 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2026 Entries / DCA adds Exits, profit taken Trend / DCA marker Same stock, same two years, same $100,000. Only the interval changed. On the daily chart the engine did the opposite of the weekly run: it accumulated aggressively on confirmed dips and let most of the gain run as a held position. STRATEGY ENDING VALUE · HEADLINE RESULT $220,672 +120.7% from $100,000 start · +$120,672 total P&L RETURN VS PASSIVE BENCHMARKS Market Wave +120.7% Buy and hold +90.5% Monthly DCA +66.2% +30.2 pts vs buy and hold +54.5 pts vs DCA HOW THE GAIN WAS BUILT 70% left running as a position $35,674 $84,998 531 shares at end $200 avg cost basis $29,478 cash on hand REALIZED OPEN POSITION Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued July 8, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 08 / 12
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SIDE BY SIDE Three windows, one engine, both benchmarks Metric 1-Hour Jan to Jul 2026 Weekly Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 Daily Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 Starting capital $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 Strategy ending value $132,690 $216,407 $220,672 Strategy ROI +32.7% +116.4% +120.7% Buy and hold ROI +14.5% +95.0% +90.5% Monthly DCA ROI +7.9% +66.4% +66.2% Outperformance vs buy and hold +18.2 pts +21.4 pts +30.2 pts Outperformance vs DCA +24.8 pts +50.0 pts +54.5 pts Realized profit, banked $25,242 $87,779 $35,674 Unrealized profit, open $7,448 $28,629 $84,998 Shares held at end 368 223 531 Average cost basis $340 $233 $200 Cash on hand at end $162 $135,913 $29,478 Read the realized-versus-unrealized band slowly. The weekly run banked $87,779 as cash and finished mostly in cash. The daily run, on the identical window, built a 531-share position at a $200 average cost and let $84,998 run unrealized. Neither is more real than the other. They are two deliberate answers to two client questions, and both beat the passive benchmarks. 09 / 12
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WHY THE RESULTS DIFFER Cash yield versus accumulation, same two years Same stock, same two years, same $100,000. The only difference is what each run was tuned to do: the weekly run to harvest cash, the daily run to accumulate shares. Weekly CASH YIELD Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 The goal was cash yield, so it worked the larger swings and banked most of its gain, finishing the two years more than 60% in cash. Realized $87,779 223 shares held $135,913 ended in cash VS Daily ACCUMULATION Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 · identical window The goal leaned to accumulation, so it bought confirmed dips harder, built a low-cost position, and let most of the gain run unrealized. Unrealized $84,998 531 shares held $200 avg cost basis The edge is not prediction. It is the ability to take a single, emotion-free posture toward a winner: ride it when riding is right, harvest it when harvesting is right, accumulate it when accumulating is right, and never let the feeling that a price is "too high," or the refusal to ever sell, make the decision. Buy and hold owns one decision, hold, and left return on the table in all three windows. DCA fared worse, paying ever-higher prices for an ever-smaller slice. 10 / 12
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THE REAL LESSON Getting paid in a bull market 01 The hardest discipline is taking the profit A paper gain is not money until you take some of it, and both buy and hold and DCA are built to never take any. Across a record-setting six-month window and a two-year double, the passive approaches realized a combined $0. The Market Wave runs banked cash in every single window. 02 One engine, many jobs The same logic produced a cash-yield result that finished more than 60% in cash on the weekly chart, and an accumulation result that built a 531-share position at a $200 cost basis on the daily chart, over the exact same two years on the exact same stock. A single human posture cannot easily replicate that. 03 Discipline and awareness are not opposites DCA removes emotion by removing sight, and it beat doing nothing in all three windows, so it deserves respect. But the same rules that remove emotion can also watch price structure, take profits into strength, buy confirmed dips, and step aside in chop. That combination beat both benchmarks in every window we tested. Alphabet will keep doing what great compounding businesses do: climb, scare its holders, correct, and climb again. You do not have to predict any of it. You have to be systematically present for it, and systematically willing to get paid. For educational purposes only. Trading stocks involves significant risk. 11 / 12
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A PATH FORWARD The winner you actually manage Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the rules-based discipline our crypto clients trust to individual stocks including Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and more. The platform is the same, but the algorithms are purpose-built for equities. Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions The algorithm executes the plan, so neither the fear that a price is too high nor the refusal to take a profit makes the call. How much of your winner is invested with its eyes closed, and how much of what it earns will you ever actually collect? ArchPublic.com Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.