Jul 2026
Rules for a Gold Rush
How the Market Wave algorithm beat monthly dollar-cost averaging in every GLD window we tested.
Read the case study: Rules for a Gold Rush
The text of every slide in Rules for a Gold Rush, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
ARCHPUBLIC.COM · JULY 2026 CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR ETFS Rules for a Gold Rush How the Market Wave algorithm beat monthly dollar-cost averaging in every GLD window we tested, from a record bull run to a worst-case 2011 entry it turned into $50,398 of banked cash. The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto and equities clients run every day, applied unchanged to GLD, the largest physically backed gold ETF in the world. Backtested results, for educational purposes only. 01 / 12
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WHY THIS STUDY, AND WHY NOW The same engine, pointed at the hardest asset to hold with a clear head Our first ETF study took on QQQ and the index-fund playbook on the friendliest terrain passive investing has. This study points the same engine at a very different kind of asset. Gold is the oldest store of value in the world, and the hardest one to hold with a clear head. It pays no dividend and produces no earnings, so there is no valuation anchor to steady your judgment. It spends years asleep, then reprices violently in months. Every investor who has owned it knows both feelings: the fear of buying too late, and the regret of never selling. As we write this in July 2026, gold sits roughly 28% below the all-time high it set in late January. Both feelings are fresh. We did not build a new model. We took the exact Market Wave algorithm our clients already run and pointed it at GLD. The benchmark in every test is a monthly dollar-cost-averaging investor: the same capital, split into equal monthly buys, never selling, ignoring price. THREE WINDOWS, THREE MARKETS The record bull run Weekly · 2024 to 2026 +55.5% Strategy +22.5% DCA The mid-trend entry Daily · 2025 to 2026 +20.7% Strategy +2.7% DCA The worst case Weekly · 2011 to 2024 +50.4% Strategy, 100% cash +40.3% DCA All three backtests started from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash and zero shares. Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 02 / 12
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THE SUBJECT The metal that tests every investor GLD is the largest physically backed gold ETF in the world. When you buy it, you buy gold's entire emotional weather system: inflation fear, currency politics, war premiums, and the oldest safe-haven instinct in finance. $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 Sep 2011 · $1,920 peak Dec 2015 · $1,050 low Aug 2020 · $2,075 Mar 2024 · $2,180 Jan 2026 · $5,589 all-time high Jul 2026 · about $4,060, down 28% 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2026 Scenario 3 · Worst case Weekly · Aug 2011 to Mar 2024 Scenario 1 · Record bull run Weekly · Jun 2024 to Jul 2026 Scenario 2 · Mid-trend entry Daily · Apr 2025 to Jul 2026 Gold rewards patience enormously, but only across cycles that outlast most investors' patience, and it punishes bad entry timing for years at a stretch. It is precisely the kind of asset where emotion does the most damage, in both directions. GLD shares ~$158 Aug 2011 ~$100 2015 low $211.60 Jun 2024 ~$500 Jan 2026 $370.80 Jul 2026 Price levels per public market data and World Gold Council figures. For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 03 / 12
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THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA Too early, too late, or asleep Every gold investor lives somewhere in one of three mistakes. 01 · TOO EARLY Buying the fever, holding the fever The investor who bought the 2011 top on inflation headlines watched 45% of their capital erode over four years, then waited nearly nine years just to get back to even. Gold did eventually vindicate them, but most did not stay for it. Hope is not a position-management plan. 02 · TOO LATE Deciding you missed it When an asset has already doubled, the reflex is paralysis. The investors who force themselves in late tend to do it emotionally, all at once, near a top, then hold through the reversal because selling would mean admitting the mistake. Gold's 28% correction from the January 2026 peak is this story playing out in real time. 03 · ASLEEP Never taking a profit Gold produces no dividend and no earnings. Until you sell some, a gold position is a number on a screen. Buy-and-never-sell works passably for an index fund with earnings behind it. On gold it leaves the investor with nothing banked after years of being right. Dollar-cost averaging is the standard prescription, and it deserves respect: it removes the emotion, spreads the entry, and beat doing nothing in all three of our windows. But it hard-codes the third mistake forever. By design it does not look, and it never, ever sells. For educational purposes only. 04 / 12
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THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same engine already running for our crypto and equities clients, applied to GLD unchanged. It does three things with rules instead of emotions. 01 Ride confirmed directional moves It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a headline, a fear spike, or a fixed calendar date. 02 Exit on rules, not nerves It takes profits into strength on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding every position on principle. 03 Step aside cleanly when the trend is not there In chop, indecision, and multi-year declines it is willing to hold cash and wait, exactly where a calendar-driven buyer keeps buying anyway. The only variables in this study are the time window and the chart interval. Same engine, same starting $100,000. 05 / 12
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SCENARIO 01 · WEEKLY CHART The record bull run June 1, 2024 to July 8, 2026 GLD opens near $212 and rides gold's historic advance through $3,000, $4,000, and the January 2026 record, then absorbs the 28% correction. Blue arrows mark rule-based long entries; magenta marks profit-taking into strength. The gift window, and the one where discipline is hardest to keep. Everyone made money here. The question is how much, and how. MARKET WAVE STRATEGY +55.5% $155,517 MONTHLY DCA +22.5% $122,462 OUTPERFORMANCE VS DCA +33.1 pts HOW THE VALUE WAS BUILT Realized profit, banked $43,105 Unrealized, open +$12,412 Total profit and loss +$55,517 Position held 411 @ $341 A rising market does not mean there was nothing to do. The algorithm treated every overextension as an opportunity, selling into strength and buying back lower, banking $43,105 in completed-trade profit while still building a 411-share position. One method only accumulated; the other accumulated, harvested, and repositioned. Backtested from a weekly-chart trade schedule, valued July 8, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 06 / 12
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SCENARIO 02 · DAILY CHART The mid-trend entry April 1, 2025 to July 8, 2026 Gold peaked in late January 2026 and fell roughly 28% by early July. The magenta profit-takes cluster near that top; blue arrows re-enter into the decline. The too-late test. This window opens with gold already above $3,000. This is the exact moment most investors freeze: chase it or skip it. MARKET WAVE STRATEGY +20.7% $120,700 MONTHLY DCA +2.7% $102,732 OUTPERFORMANCE VS DCA +18 pts HOW THE VALUE WAS BUILT Realized profit, banked as cash $33,377 Total profit and loss +$20,700 Position held 326 shares at $409 avg The engine had already done the thing the late human buyer never does: it sold into the top it did not know was the top, banking $33,377 in realized profit on the way up. The mid-trend entry everyone fears was worth 20.7% to the rules, and 2.7% to the calendar, over the identical fifteen months. Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued July 8, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 07 / 12
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SCENARIO 03 · WEEKLY CHART The worst case August 1, 2011 to March 11, 2024 The window opens five weeks before gold's September 2011 peak. GLD did not durably reclaim its 2011 high until 2020. Across nearly thirteen years the algorithm sold rallies, stepped aside, and re-entered on confirmation. The window we would hide if this were marketing: a 45% decline over four years, then most of a decade grinding back. An investor who bought the open waited roughly nine years to break even. STRATEGY · 100% CASH +50.4% $150,398 MONTHLY DCA +40.3% $140,331 OUTPERFORMANCE VS DCA +10.1 pts REALIZED TO THE PENNY Total bought, closed entries $112,633.49 Total sold, closed exits $163,031.68 Realized profit, all cash $50,398.19 Every dollar of the DCA gain is unrealized, sitting in 640 shares never once trimmed in 151 months. One investor spent thirteen years accumulating a paper gain and still owns all of the next drawdown. The other finished holding money. Backtested from a weekly-chart trade schedule, valued March 11, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 08 / 12
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SIDE BY SIDE Three windows, one pattern Every test measured against the same disciplined monthly DCA benchmark. In every window the algorithm finished ahead, and finished with meaningful realized cash, which DCA by definition never produces. SCENARIO ENDING VALUE STRATEGY ROI DCA ROI VS DCA The record bull run Weekly · 2024 to 2026 $155,517 +55.5% +22.5% +33.1 The mid-trend entry Daily · 2025 to 2026 $120,700 +20.7% +2.7% +18.0 The worst case Weekly · 2011 to 2024 $150,398 +50.4% +40.3% +10.1 Across a euphoric run, a late entry into a top, and a thirteen-year worst case, the algorithm banked between $33,377 and $50,398 in completed-trade cash per window. The dollar-cost averager, across all three combined, realized nothing. On an asset with no dividend and no earnings, that is the whole difference between owning gold's story and getting paid by it. Every window started from the same $100,000 in cash and zero shares. Realized profit, banked as cash Completed-trade profit per window. This is what DCA can never produce. $43,105 $33,377 $50,398 Bull run Mid-trend Worst case Strategy DCA, always $0 Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only. 09 / 12 $0 $0 $0
Slide 10
WHY THE GAP IS SO LARGE Gold only pays the seller The instinct is to assume the algorithm predicted gold's moves. It predicted nothing. It responded to structure, and on this asset, responding is worth more than anywhere else. A stock or an index fund has earnings compounding underneath it. Gold has no earnings and pays no dividend. One hundred percent of a gold investor's return is price change, which means one hundred percent of the return is only ever collected by selling. A method that never sells has locked itself out of the only payout window the asset has. DCA removes emotion by removing sight. On gold, sight is the whole game, because the asset never writes you a check. The algorithm keeps the discipline and keeps its eyes open. In the bull run DCA kept a fine paper gain. Only the algorithm converted the overextensions into banked profit while still riding the trend. $43,105 In the mid-trend entry DCA's calendar marched into the top at full size; mean reversion took it back to 2.7%. The algorithm sold strength it did not know was the top. $33,377 In the worst case Thirteen years of DCA discipline produced $0 realized. The same thirteen years of rules produced cash and zero exposure left on the table. $50,398 Dollar-cost averaging, realized profit across all three windows $0 For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. 10 / 12
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THE REAL LESSON The calendar is not a strategy 01 The DCA prescription gets the diagnosis right Emotion is the number one destroyer of gold returns: panic buying at fever tops, capitulating at bottoms, freezing when the trend leaves. DCA cures the emotion and beat doing nothing in all three windows. The diagnosis deserves real respect. 02 But the cure amputates the payout To guarantee it never panics, DCA agreed to never look and never sell. On an asset whose entire return is price, never selling means never collecting. Across all three windows, disciplined DCA realized a combined $0. Real gains, but all story, no settlement. 03 Discipline and awareness are not opposites The same rules that remove emotion can watch price structure, take profits into strength, step aside in declines, and re-enter on confirmation. That combination beat the calendar in every window, and it is the only approach that ever put realized cash in the account. Gold will keep doing what it has done for fifteen years: long sleeps, violent repricings, euphoric tops, punishing corrections. You do not have to predict any of it. You have to be systematically present for it, and systematically willing to get paid. For educational purposes only. Trading ETFs involves significant risk. 11 / 12
Slide 12
A PATH FORWARD Rules, not reactions Arch Public's agentic strategies now run on gold through GLD, the same rules-based Market Wave engine our crypto, equities, and index ETF clients already use, applied unchanged. Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions Neither the fear of being late nor the refusal to sell ever makes the call. How much of your capital is invested with its eyes closed, and how much of what it earns will you ever actually collect? Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.