Jul 2026
Market Wave on BRR
Generating returns in any market regime, on ProCap Financial.
Read the case study: Market Wave on BRR
The text of every slide in Market Wave on BRR, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
CASE STUDY Market Wave on BRR Generating returns in any market regime. ProCap Financial · Nasdaq: BRR Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026 $100,000 starting capital · zero shares
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Three configurations, one engine Over six months, broad market conditions pulled BRR down roughly 44%, the kind of stretch every young high-conviction stock goes through. Passive approaches had no answer. Market Wave, configured three different ways, finished positive in all three. The same window, without rules: Buy & hold −44.3% DCA −12%
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THE ASSET ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) ProCap Financial is a Bitcoin-native financial services firm founded in 2025 by Anthony Pompliano. Management has been actively shareholder-aligned, buying Bitcoin to lower cost basis and repurchasing shares when the market misprices them. That makes BRR an ideal test case: a young, high-conviction public stock with real volatility and strong retail interest. During the test window, broad market conditions produced a roughly 44% drawdown, a demanding, real-world environment to prove the engine in. Volatility is not a bug here. It is the raw material an algorithm converts into returns. $750M+ raised from leading investors 5,400 BTC held on the balance sheet 2025 founded by Anthony Pompliano BRR listed on Nasdaq For shareholders who believe in the long-term thesis, the question is not whether to believe. It is how to be positioned while the market catches up.
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THE PROBLEM Bias is expensive Discretionary trading struggles most in volatile stretches. The failure modes are human, and they are universal: 01 Emotional exits at local bottoms 02 Hesitation on strong entries 03 Anchoring to old prices 04 Headline-driven decisions BUY & HOLD ON BRR −44% $100,000 becomes roughly $55,500 DOLLAR COST AVERAGING −12% steady buying, still underwater Rules do not get scared, do not get greedy, and do not need the stock to go up to make money. And when the stock turns, the same rules are already positioned for it.
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METHODOLOGY Backtest setup THE ENGINE Market Wave is a configurable, rules-based engine that defines entries, exits, and position sizing mechanically. This study describes behavior, not proprietary internals. COMMON SETUP Asset BRR (ProCap) Period Jan 1 – Jul 22, 2026 Capital $100,000 Starting shares 0 BENCHMARKS Do nothing. Hold cash the entire period. Buy & hold. Invest all $100,000 on day one. DCA. Equal buys at regular intervals, all period. All figures come from the same backtest engine with identical starting conditions. Only configuration differs between scenarios. Chart captures accompany each scenario.
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SCENARIO 1 · 4H CHART Swing configuration +40.5% Final value $140,522 Realized profit +$38,508 Unrealized +$2,013 Ending position 3,413 sh @ $1.42 Buy & hold · DCA −44.3% · −12% Outperformance: +84.8 pts vs. buy & hold Nearly all profit was realized: gains were repeatedly banked, ending the period with $133,661 in cash. The engine harvested BRR's volatility, buying weakness and selling strength, generating returns from movement rather than direction.
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SCENARIO 2 · 4H CHART Accumulation focus +5.9% while accumulating Final value $105,868 Position built 39,267 sh · $78,730 Avg cost basis $1.81 Unrealized P&L +$7,501 Buy & hold · DCA −44.5% · −12% Outperformance: +50.3 pts vs. buy & hold One dial turns the swing strategy into worry-free accumulation. A DCA buyer finished down 12%; this configuration finished up 5.9% while building a nearly $79k position, in profit the whole way into a bottom-finding process. This mirrors the discipline ProCap's own management has articulated: accumulate accretively when the market misprices the asset. Market Wave automates it for any shareholder who shares the long-term view.
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SCENARIO 3 · 15M CHART Small timeframe +31.3% Final value $131,290 Realized profit +$29,316 Unrealized +$1,974 Ending position 3,210 sh @ $1.39 Buy & hold · DCA −45.7% · −12% Outperformance: +77.0 pts vs. buy & hold High-frequency decisioning is where human bias and fatigue cost the most, and where rules-based execution shines. Profit was banked consistently, ending with $124,854 in cash. Buy & hold reads −45.7% here vs. −44.3% on the 4h test due to intraday timestamp differences at the period boundaries.
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COMPARISON Side by side METRIC Swing · 4h Accumulation · 4h Small timeframe · 15m Strategy ROI +40.5% +5.9% +31.3% Final value $140,522 $105,868 $131,290 Realized P&L +$38,508 −$1,633 +$29,316 Unrealized P&L +$2,013 +$7,501 +$1,974 Ending position 3,413 sh @ $1.42 39,267 sh @ $1.81 3,210 sh @ $1.39 Buy & hold −44.3% −44.5% −45.7% DCA −12% −12% −12% vs. buy & hold +84.8 pts +50.3 pts +77.0 pts
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COMPARISON Strategy vs. passive Three configurations, three trader profiles, one demanding window. Every configuration beat both passive alternatives by 50 to 85 points. Swing · 4h +40.5% Small timeframe · 15m +31.3% Accumulation · 4h +5.9% DCA −12% Buy & hold −44.3% 0
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THE TAKEAWAY Why rules beat bias 01 Discipline, sustained Mechanical entries and exits enforce a discipline that is hard for anyone to sustain across six months of choppy markets. 02 Built for regimes These results came in a demanding window. That is the point. A strategy that delivers here delivers in friendlier conditions too. 03 Two audiences, one tool For traders, a tool you configure to your goals. For believers in the stock, a way to be rewarded throughout the journey, not only at the destination.
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THE NEXT STEP The backtest proves the engine on BRR. The natural next step is running it live. We would love to put this to work for real. archpublic.com → Same engine, other assets and regimes. More case studies to come. Market Wave · BRR case study · Jul 2026
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APPENDIX Disclosures All results in this document are backtested over January 1 to July 22, 2026 on BRR (ProCap Financial) using the same engine, identical starting conditions of $100,000 and zero shares, and identical data. Only configuration differs between scenarios. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not represent live trading, and is not indicative of future results. Figures exclude fees and slippage unless otherwise noted. Benchmark figures for buy and hold vary slightly between timeframes due to intraday timestamp differences at the period boundaries. Nothing in this document is financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your objectives and risk tolerance before trading. archpublic.com
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.