Jul 2026
The Bitcoin Accumulation Engine
How three Market Wave strategies across two asset classes bought Bitcoin through a bear market and paid for it with harvested cash.
Read the case study: The Bitcoin Accumulation Engine
The text of every slide in The Bitcoin Accumulation Engine, transcribed from the deck.
Slide 1
CASE STUDY · MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO DESIGN The Bitcoin Accumulation Engine How three Market Wave strategies across two asset classes bought Bitcoin through a bear market and paid for it with harvested cash. January 1 to July 28, 2026 One algorithm. Three symbols. Two asset classes. One goal. Backtested results. For educational purposes only. ArchPublic.com · July 2026
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THE SETUP Why this case study, and why now Every prior study answered a narrow question: what does Market Wave do to one symbol over one window. Real clients do not run one strategy. They run a portfolio of them, pointed at a goal. THE CLIENT'S GOAL Accumulate spot BTC, continuously, and fund that accumulation with cash the portfolio produces rather than cash from your paycheck. Leg 1 · BTC · Daily Accumulate spot Bitcoin patiently, at a disciplined cost basis. Leg 2 · MSTR · 4-hour Harvest MicroStrategy's volatility and convert it into cash. Leg 3 · MARA · 4-hour Harvest cash from a name whose story and price disagreed all window. +15.9% Portfolio, vs −18.3% buy and hold 1.07 BTC Acquired at a $65,469 basis $55,766 Realized cash banked 5.53 BTC Ending worth, vs 3.38 all-in on day one Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 02
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JANUARY 1 TO JULY 28, 2026 The window: seven months that punished conviction BTC −29% Opened near $88,722 and traded near $62,850 by mid-July, roughly 42% below the all-time high, with sentiment at extreme fear. A genuine bear leg, not a dip. MSTR −38.5% Fell from near $158 to under $100 as the market stopped paying a premium for leveraged Bitcoin exposure. mNAV compressed all year and briefly broke 1.0x in June. MARA +12.9% Rose while Bitcoin fell, on a pivot toward AI and data-center capacity in Texas. The path: mid-$14s in June, an 18% slide in three weeks, an 11.8% pop in five sessions. Three assets tied to Bitcoin in the public mind behaved in three completely different ways. Any allocation built on "these all move together" was wrong three separate times. Price levels per public market data as of late July 2026. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. 03
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THE PROBLEM The accumulator's real constraint Ask a committed accumulator what their plan is for a 29% decline and you will hear one of three answers. "I buy the dip." Every level from $88,722 down was a dip relative to the one above it. The capital runs out before the levels do. "I dollar-cost average." Respectable and disciplined. It also buys the same amount at $88,000 and at $63,000, and it never generates a dollar to redeploy. "I wait for the bottom." Not a plan. A wish with a calendar attached. The person waiting for the bottom is the person who does not buy it. An accumulator's biggest limit is not conviction. It is fresh capital. If part of your capital is systematically working other assets and producing realized cash, your Bitcoin buying power is no longer tied to your paycheck. It is tied to volatility, and volatility in a bear market is abundant. Can one rules-based engine do both at once, with no discretionary input? That is what we tested. For educational purposes only. 04
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MARKET WAVE The engine: one algorithm, three jobs 01 Ride confirmed moves It enters on rule-based confirmation, not on a hunch, a headline, or a feeling that a price is too high or too low. 02 Exit on rules, not nerves Where tuned to do so, it takes profit into strength on defined triggers, converting paper gains into cash. 03 Step aside cleanly In chop and indecision it holds cash and waits, which is precisely when human traders overtrade. THE TUNING IS THE PRODUCT Tuned for accumulation Trades sparingly, deploys into confirmed conditions, builds a position it intends to keep. Scoreboard: coins acquired and cost basis. Tuned for cash yield Works the swings, enters and exits repeatedly, ends the period holding very little. Scoreboard: how much cash it banked. Trading stocks and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. 05
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THE DESIGN The architecture: three legs, one goal LEG ASSET CHART ASSIGNMENT GRADED ON 1 BTC Daily Accumulate spot Bitcoin Coins acquired and average cost basis 2 MSTR 4-hour Harvest cash Realized profit 3 MARA 4-hour Harvest cash Realized profit Different scoreboards Leg 1 is graded on coins and cost basis. Legs 2 and 3 on realized cash. A portfolio that uses only one scoreboard misreads what happened. Deliberate intervals A slower chart for the position you intend to keep. A faster chart for the volatility you intend to convert. Volatility sourcing, not hedging MSTR and MARA move violently when Bitcoin moves. The client is not expressing a view on either company. The client is renting their volatility. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. 06
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LEG 1 · DAILY CHART · ACCUMULATE Leg 1: BTC on the daily chart Accumulate spot Bitcoin through a bear market. Keep buying power in reserve. −0.51% Strategy ROI −29.1% Buy and hold ROI +28.6 Points of outperformance 1.07 BTC Bitcoin acquired $65,469 Average cost basis, 26% below the January open $32,168 Cash still in reserve, another 0.51 BTC of buying power $99,485 Ending value, vs $70,885 buy and hold The cost basis is the product. Counting its dry powder, this leg controls 1.58 BTC of buying power against 1.13 BTC for buy and hold. Forty percent more Bitcoin, and the account finished flat while the asset fell 29%. Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, January 1 to July 28, 2026. For educational purposes only. 07
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LEG 2 · 4-HOUR CHART · CASH YIELD Leg 2: MSTR on the 4-hour chart Harvest cash from a stock that fell 38.5%. +9.8% Strategy ROI −38.5% Buy and hold ROI +48.3 Points of outperformance $16,145 Realized cash banked from completed trades. Not a paper gain. Money in the account that can buy Bitcoin. Buy and hold −38.5% Monthly dollar-cost averaging ≈ −29% Market Wave, cash-yield tune +9.8% A cash-yield tune does not need the underlying to go up. It needs the underlying to move. MSTR moved a great deal in 2026, and every one of those moves was raw material. Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, January 1 to July 28, 2026. For educational purposes only. 08
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LEG 3 · 4-HOUR CHART · CASH YIELD Leg 3: MARA on the 4-hour chart Harvest cash, with zero opinion about the story. +38.4% Strategy ROI +12.9% Buy and hold ROI +25.6 Points of outperformance $37,389 Realized cash banked. 97% of this leg's total profit is realized, not marked. 97.5% Ends in cash. It never intended to hold MARA. $138,441 Ending value, vs $112,862 buy and hold MARA's price and MARA's narrative disagreed for most of this window, and the narrative flipped at least three times. A systematic engine with no view outperformed every version of having one. Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, January 1 to July 28, 2026. For educational purposes only. 09
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THE SCOREBOARD Did we hit the goal? We acquired over one full Bitcoin and generated $55,766 in cash yield doing it. Acquire spot Bitcoin 1.07 BTC At a disciplined cost basis $65,469 · −26% vs Jan Harvest cash from the equity legs $53,534 realized Keep buying power in reserve $203,274 in cash Beat passive exposure +15.9% vs −18.3% BTC MSTR MARA Portfolio Ending value $99,485 $109,765 $138,441 $347,692 Strategy ROI −0.51% +9.8% +38.4% +15.9% Buy and hold ROI −29.1% −38.5% +12.9% −18.3% Realized profit $2,232 $16,145 $37,389 $55,766 Ending cash $32,168 $36,150 $134,956 $203,274 Backtested results. Buy and hold realized zero. Dollar-cost averaging realized zero. Full-precision figures in the study text. 10
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CONNECTING THE LEGS The funnel: what the harvested cash buys MSTR · Leg 2 $16,145 realized, on a stock that fell 38.5% MARA · Leg 3 $37,389 realized, with zero opinion on the story → HARVESTED CASH $53,534 buys 0.85 BTC at the $62,903 close → Accumulated directly by Leg 1 1.07 BTC Fundable from harvested cash 0.85 BTC Acquired or fundable 1.92 BTC The equity legs funded 44% of the total Bitcoin position without requiring one additional dollar of the client's income. That is an accumulation rate decoupled from your paycheck. Conversion math uses the implied ending Bitcoin price of $62,903 and is illustrative of buying power, not a completed transaction. 11
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THE ONLY SCOREBOARD THAT MATTERS Denominated in Bitcoin 3.38 $300,000 all-in on spot BTC, January 1 5.53 Three-leg Market Wave portfolio 63% more Bitcoin Two people started 2026 with the same $300,000 and the same intention: own as much Bitcoin as possible. One bought it all on January 1 and did nothing else. The other ran three rules-based legs, harvesting cash the whole way. Seven months later, the second one can buy 2.15 more coins than the first. Neither predicted the bear market. Only one had a process that turned it into buying power. BTC-denominated figures convert ending portfolio value at the implied $62,903 close and are illustrative. Backtested results. 12
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PROPORTIONAL BY DESIGN The same recipe at $100,000 Starting capital, roughly $33,333 per leg $100,000 Ending portfolio value $115,897 · +15.9% Equal-weight buy and hold $81,754 · −18.3% Realized cash banked, all three legs $18,588 Bitcoin accumulated directly in Leg 1 0.36 BTC Additional Bitcoin fundable from harvested cash 0.28 BTC Total Bitcoin acquired or fundable 0.64 BTC Same percentages. Same ratios. Same 63% edge in BTC terms. Every recipe on this platform is proportional. Position sizes scale to the capital in the leg. The rules, the entries, the exits, and the tuning are identical whether the leg holds $5,000 or $5,000,000. The most common reason people delay is a belief that automation is for large accounts. It is not. What scales with capital is the dollar figure, not the edge. 1.84 BTC Portfolio worth in Bitcoin 1.13 BTC Same $100,000 all-in on January 1 Illustrative scaling of the backtested three-leg portfolio. Backtested performance is hypothetical. 13
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NO FORECASTS REQUIRED Why this worked 01 The goal was defined before the strategy The client did not ask for the highest-returning configuration. They asked how to end the period owning more Bitcoin, bought better, funded by the portfolio itself. 02 Different jobs got different tunings Leg 1 ended 68% invested, holding the Bitcoin it was hired to accumulate. Leg 3 ended 1.8% invested with 97% of profit banked. Same algorithm, opposite postures, both correct. 03 Volatility was an input, not a threat Bear market, mNAV collapse, miner-or-data-center fight. Those narratives moved prices, and moving prices are what a rules-based engine feeds on. The harvester does not need the story to resolve. 04 Cash yield and accumulation reinforced each other $53,534 of harvested cash, 44% of the total Bitcoin position, came from assets the client never intended to hold. Neither leg could have produced that outcome by itself. The edge is not prediction. It is holding a single, emotion-free posture through a window in which Bitcoin fell 29%, MSTR fell 38.5%, and MARA rose 12.9%, as a deliberate choice rather than a default. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. 14
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ARCH PUBLIC A path forward Zero custody Your assets never leave your exchange or brokerage. Read-only and trade-only API keys. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any leg at any time. Rules, not reactions The algorithm executes the plan, so neither fear nor the refusal to take a profit makes the call. Recipes that scale The same tuning works at $25,000 and at $2.5 million. +15.9% vs −18.3% passive 1.07 BTC at a $65,469 basis $55,766 realized cash banked 63% more Bitcoin than all-in on January 1 The question is not whether you believe in Bitcoin. It is whether your accumulation plan has any mechanism for turning a bear market into buying power. Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.