Jul 2026
The most owned stock in America, finally managed
How the Market Wave algorithm beat dollar-cost averaging on AAPL.
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Slide 1
CASE STUDY · ARCH PUBLIC FOR STOCKS The most owned stock in America, finally managed How the Market Wave Algorithm Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging on AAPL in Every Window We Tested, From a Two-Year Chop to a Nine-Year Mega Trend ArchPublic.com · July 2026 Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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WHY NOW Why this case study, and why now Apple is the most universally held equity in America. It sits inside nearly every index fund and retirement account, and almost no one who owns it has ever made an active decision about it. We ran the Market Wave engine on AAPL three ways, all starting from the same $100,000 in cash and zero shares. DAILY · TRADE THE CHOP Jul 2024 → Jul 2026 +59.2% Market Wave strategy Monthly DCA +30.4% DAILY · PURE ACCUMULATION Jul 2024 → Jul 2026 +41.7% Market Wave strategy DCA benchmark +10.3% WEEKLY · CAPTURE THE TREND Jul 2017 → Jul 2026 +607.3% Market Wave strategy Monthly DCA +231.4% One engine, three tests. Each one beat the disciplined passive benchmark by a wide margin.
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THE SUBJECT Apple: the stock everyone owns and nobody decides about The most valuable company in the world at roughly $4.9 trillion, and arguably the single most widely held equity in the United States. Its split-adjusted history is powerful compounding punctuated by repeated, credible-feeling crises. 2017 Split-adjusted near $37 2018–19 38% drawdown on the China revenue warning 2020 Pandemic crash, then the 4-for-1 split 2022–23 30% bear market, low near $125 2025 Worst performer in big tech, down roughly 15% Jun 2026 Slide into the $270s off a spring high near $317 Jul 2026 All-time high of $334.68, most valuable company in the world
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THE INVESTOR'S DILEMMA A decade of holding, zero decisions 01 The anchor problem Everyone remembers what they paid, or the peak. In June 2026 an investor watched Apple slide from $317 to the $270s and evaluated a loss against a number in their head, not the trend on the chart. 02 Narrative whiplash Apple's story flipped twice in eighteen months. Missed AI and exposed to tariffs in 2025; best pipeline in years and the top market cap in the world by July 2026. Same company, opposite conclusions. 03 Paralysis of the core holding Because Apple is usually one of the largest positions in a retirement account, every decision feels enormous. Selling feels like betraying the thesis; buying more feels like concentration risk. So the default is doing nothing, forever. Monthly DCA is the standard cure. It removes emotion and beat doing nothing in all three windows. But it buys the same dollar amount at $274 or $334, cannot tell an uptrend from a falling knife, and never sells, which means it can never turn a paper gain into money.
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THE ENGINE What Market Wave actually does Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm. Three jobs, run with rules instead of emotions. Ride confirmed moves Enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not a hunch, a headline, or a feeling that a price is too high or too low. Exit on rules, not nerves Where it is tuned to do so, it takes profit into strength on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding every share on principle. Step aside cleanly In chop and indecision it will hold cash and wait, which is exactly when human investors tend to overtrade. The engine is tunable. The same logic on the same chart can work the swings and bank cash, or trade far less and build a low-cost-basis position. Scenarios 1 and 2 change only the tuning.
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SCENARIO 1 · DAILY CHART Jul 15, 2024 → Jul 9, 2026 Trade The Chop +59.2% Market Wave strategy ROI Ending value $159,232 Monthly DCA benchmark +30.4% Realized profit, banked $10,433 Unrealized profit, open $48,799 Shares held, avg cost 438 @ $204.77 A $204.77 basis against a stock near $316, built by systematically buying confirmed strength off dips that felt like the end of the Apple story.
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SCENARIO 2 · SAME CHART, RETUNED Jul 15, 2024 → Jul 9, 2026 Pure Accumulation +41.7% Market Wave strategy ROI Ending value $141,735 DCA benchmark +10.3% Realized profit $0 Unrealized profit, open $41,735 Shares held, avg cost 380 @ $206.33 Same window, same daily chart. Only the tuning changed. Zero closed trades, and a cost basis within two dollars of Scenario 1.
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SCENARIO 3 · WEEKLY CHART · JUL 2017 → JUL 2026 Capture The Trend +607.3% $100,000 → $707,301 · DCA +231.4% $120.10 Average cost of a 1,893-share position against a stock near $329 $212,630 Realized cash banked, more than double the starting capital 1,893 Shares still held, roughly double the DCA benchmark's 987
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WHY THE RESULTS DIFFER The tuning is the product Three different numbers do not mean one run is right and the others are noise. They are the same engine answering three different questions. Work this stock's volatility? $10,433 realized $48,799 unrealized 438 shares @ $204.77 +59.2% Just own it well? 0 closed trades $78,407 deployed 380 shares @ $206.33 +41.7% Run it for the long term? $212,630 realized 1,893 shares @ $120.10 $85,280 in cash +607.3% Across nine years a dollar-cost averager banked $0 and held 987 shares. The algorithm banked $212,630 and held 1,893. The edge is not prediction. It is one emotion-free posture, chosen on purpose.
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SIDE BY SIDE Three windows, one engine Daily, swing tune Jul 24 → Jul 26 Daily, accumulation Jul 24 → Jul 26 Weekly, long-term trend Jul 17 → Jul 26 Starting capital $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 Strategy ending value $159,232 $141,735 $707,301 Strategy ROI +59.2% +41.7% +607.3% DCA benchmark ROI +30.4% +10.3% +231.4% Outperformance vs DCA +28.8 pts +31.4 pts +375.9 pts Realized profit, banked $10,433 $0 $212,630 Unrealized profit, open $48,799 $41,735 $394,671 Shares held at end 438 380 1,893 Average cost basis $204.77 $206.33 $120.10 Cash on hand at end $20,745 $21,593 $85,280
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THE REAL LESSON The next big cycle is already starting In 2017 Apple was mature, widely owned, and fully understood. The bull case was boring; the bear case was credible. What followed was a roughly eightfold move through a 38% drawdown, a pandemic crash, a bear market, and a year as its peer group's worst. Almost nobody held it with a plan. That pattern is what transfers. 01 A great decade still contains terrible years Apple's nine-year run includes 2025, when it was big tech's worst performer. Twelve months later it was the most valuable company in the world. A rule navigates that. A stomach does not. 02 Taking profit and building a position are not opposites The weekly run banked $212,630 and still finished holding 1,893 shares at $120.10, roughly double the benchmark that never sold. Selling into strength funded buying into weakness. 03 The tuning is the product The same engine, same chart, same window produced an active swing result and a zero-turnover accumulation result, within two dollars on cost basis. What you want from a position is an input, not an accident.
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A PATH FORWARD Rules-based automation, live on individual stocks Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and more. Zero custody Your assets never leave your account. Full control Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions The algorithm executes the plan, so neither fear nor the refusal to take a profit makes the call. How much of your largest position is invested with its eyes closed? ArchPublic.com For educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
Backtested results, for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset.