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Contents
The results
The subject: Tesla
The investor's dilemma
The algorithm
“Three years, same logic, run on the daily”
“The whipsaw test, on the 4-hour”
Side by side
Why the results differ
The real lesson
A path forward
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Case studies
TSLA
Case study: Arch Public for stocks
Outperforming buy and hold on Tesla
How the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities returned 184% on TSLA, more than triple the 55% buy-and-hold result.
The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto clients run every day, applied unchanged to a single stock: Tesla (TSLA).
TSLA
Stock
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
Valued June 16, 2026
6 min read
The same algorithm our crypto clients run, pointed at a single stock
We did not build a new model. We took the exact Market Wave algorithm, the trend and momentum capture logic that rides confirmed moves and steps aside when the trend is gone, and ran it on TSLA two ways. Both runs start from the same $100,000 in cash, zero shares, and both end June 16, 2026.
Long-term daily
Jun 2023 to Jun 2026, three years
Market Wave
+184.58%
Buy and hold
+55.32%
Outperformance
+129.26 points
Short-term 4-hour
Jan 2025 to Jun 2026, about 18 months
Market Wave
+50.56%
Buy and hold
+5.41%
Outperformance
+45.16 points
Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Tesla, TSLA
A great company, a sideways stock
This is not a bear case. A dominant EV franchise, an energy arm, self-driving software, the robotaxi and Optimus programs. And yet the stock has gone almost nowhere in a straight line, and everywhere in a jagged one.
The opportunity cost: same three years, same belief in a technology leader. A very different result.
Price levels per public market data, as of June 16, 2026. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Nvidia, the clearest beneficiary of the AI and compute buildout
+1,100%
Tesla buy and hold, same window
+55%
Three years of TSLA, measured from a June 2023 entry:
June 2023 Entry near $260, the baseline
Spring 2025 Drawdown to the high $200s, +12% from the entry
December 22, 2025 All-time high of $498.83, +92% from the entry
Early 2026 Pullback to about $430, +65% from the entry
June 16, 2026 Close at $404.66, +56% from the entry
A great company in a range is the hardest thing to hold
The story keeps you in
Every rally says the breakout is finally here, so you add or refuse to trim. Every decline says the thesis is broken, so you freeze or capitulate near the lows.
The volatility keeps you reacting
Endless deliveries, regulatory headlines, and personality-driven sentiment make Tesla the purest version of this trap on the market.
Decision fatigue does the rest
It asks for hundreds of decisions across years. As high-stakes choices pile up, decision quality falls: buy a little high, sell a little low, give the range back.
This is the problem an algorithm is built to solve. Not to predict Tesla, but to remove the bias that turns a tradeable range into a frustrating round trip.
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
What Market Wave actually does
Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same one already running across crypto. It does three things with rules instead of emotions.
Ride confirmed moves
It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch or a headline.
Exit on rules, not nerves
It takes profits on defined exit triggers, banking gains into cash rather than hoping the move continues.
Step aside in chop
In indecision it holds cash and waits, exactly when human investors tend to overtrade.
The effect on a range-bound stock: the algorithm treats the range as the opportunity, not the enemy. It works the swings and accumulates shares at disciplined prices, while a holder simply absorbs the full round trip.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 1
“Three years, same logic, run on the daily”
June 16, 2023 to June 16, 2026 · Daily chart
Strategy return
+184.58%
Buy and hold +55.32%, outperformance +129.26 percentage points
$100,000 became
$284,580
Realized profit, banked
$158,667
Unrealized, open position
$25,913
Shares held
583 at $360.21 avg cost
Cash on hand
$48,664
Open full-size chart
The number to read The majority of the gain, over $158,000, was realized. The algorithm did not ride one lucky position. It converted volatility into banked cash, redeployed it, and still finished holding shares below the close.
Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 2
“The whipsaw test, on the 4-hour”
January 1, 2025 to June 16, 2026 · 4-hour chart
Strategy return
+50.56%
Buy and hold +5.41%, outperformance +45.16 percentage points
$100,000 became
$150,565
Realized profit, banked
$44,682
Unrealized, open position
$5,883
Shares held
292 at $377.93 avg cost
Cash on hand
$34,326
Open full-size chart
The number to read The cleanest illustration of the thesis. Where simply holding paid 5.41%, a rules-based approach to the same price action paid roughly nine times more, and again did it mostly through realized, banked gains.
Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The same stock, four different outcomes
TSLA results by scenario
Metric
Long-term daily
Short-term 4-hour
Window
Jun 2023 to Jun 2026
Jan 2025 to Jun 2026
Starting capital
$100,000.00
$100,000.00
Strategy ending value
$284,580.54
$150,564.86
Strategy ROI
+184.58%
+50.56%
Tesla buy and hold ROI
+55.32%
+5.41%
Outperformance vs buy and hold
+129.26 pts
+45.16 pts
Realized profit, banked
$158,667.36
$44,681.60
Unrealized profit, open
$25,913.18
$5,883.26
Shares held at end, avg cost
583 at $360.21
292 at $377.93
Cash on hand at end
$48,663.76
$34,325.50
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Realized gains versus the round trip
The algorithm: conversion
It harvested the range over and over, selling strength and re-entering on confirmation. In both tests, realized cash dwarfed the open position. Scenario 1 realized $158,667 of $184,580; scenario 2 realized $44,682 of $50,565. Roughly 86 to 88% of all gains were banked, not paper.
Buy and hold: one decision
A holder owns exactly one decision: hold. It captures the full upside of a trend and the full pain of every reversal in between. Over the 18-month window it lived through a 70%-plus round trip to Tesla's all-time high and back, and was paid almost nothing for the ride: +55% over three years, +5% over the volatile 18 months.
The edge is not prediction. It is conversion: turning the same volatility that frustrates the holder into a series of realized gains and a lower average cost basis on the shares it keeps.
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Discipline beats conviction in a range
01
Great companies do not go up in a straight line
Tesla is a genuine technology story, and the stock still delivered a fraction of what the AI leaders returned. Belief in the business is not the same as being paid by the stock.
02
Opportunity cost is real
Capital tied up in a range-bound name, even a beloved one, is capital not compounding elsewhere. A passive holder gave up an enormous amount of potential return to the market's indecision.
03
Decision fatigue is the enemy
A volatile great company demands a relentless series of emotional decisions, and decision quality degrades as those demands pile up. The likely human outcome is a steady drip of suboptimal calls.
A rules-based approach addresses all three at once. It does not get tired, fall in love with the story, or freeze at the lows. It removes the bias and executes the plan, which in a stock like Tesla is precisely where the return potential lives.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Tesla is the first of many
Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the same algorithms our crypto clients trust to individual stocks including Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and SpaceX. The architecture is unchanged.
Zero custody. Your assets never leave your account. Full control. Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions. The algorithm executes the plan so emotions do not.
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
Tesla buy and hold, long-term daily
+55.32%
The Market Wave Algorithm for Equities, long-term daily
+184.58%
$158,667 realized profit, banked
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published June 17, 2026.
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