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“Building a Bitcoin position at opportune prices”
“Taking advantage of volatility”
“A blended approach”
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BTC
Case study: Arch Public for crypto
Trading All Time Highs Three Ways
Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm can be configured for different objectives: accumulating Bitcoin at favorable prices, generating cash yields through strategic sales, or a balanced mix of both.
BTC
Crypto
Arbitrage Algorithm
Valued August 13, 2025
5 min read
Making Bitcoin work for you
On March 1, 2024, Bitcoin was trading near its all-time high of approximately $70,000, fueled by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional interest. Market sentiment was bullish yet cautious, as investors recalled the painful drawdown from the previous cycle's peak of around $69,000 in November 2021 to lows near $15,000 in late 2022. Long-term holders, having endured that volatility, were reluctant to risk another major correction that could wipe out significant portions of their portfolios.
Enter Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm. It can be configured for different objectives: accumulating Bitcoin at favorable prices, generating cash yields through strategic sales, or a balanced mix of both.
In this case study, we explore how an investor with $100,000 initial capital could have deployed the algorithm starting March 1, 2024. Over the subsequent 17 months, Bitcoin experienced significant swings, dipping to lows around $53,000 in September 2024, rallying to $73,000 in October 2024, lateral movement in early 2025 around $94,000 to $100,000, and ultimately surging to a new all-time high of approximately $120,000 by August 13, 2025.
We simulate three approaches: Accumulation, Cash Yield, and a balanced approach. All outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy while minimizing emotional stress from drawdowns, as the algorithm systematically bought low, sold high, and preserved capital during volatility.
Accumulation
Initial capital $100,000
Profit and loss
+96.5%
Buy and hold
+71.4%
Realized profit
$12,195
BTC accumulated
1.58 BTC
CAGR
59.2%
Cash yield
Initial capital $100,000
Profit and loss
+97.8%
Buy and hold
+71.4%
Realized profit
$90,585
BTC accumulated
0.37 BTC
CAGR
60%
Balanced
Initial capital $100,000
Profit and loss
+100.4%
Buy and hold
+71.4%
Realized profit
$61,959
BTC accumulated
1.06 BTC
CAGR
61.4%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Accumulation
“Building a Bitcoin position at opportune prices”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · 6 hour chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Accumulation approach prioritizes growing Bitcoin holdings by focusing on buys during dips, with minimal sells to lock in profits only when advantageous. This is ideal for long-term believers wary of overpaying at peaks.
Over the period, the algorithm executed frequent small buys during the uneasy consolidation from March to October 2024, accumulating Bitcoin at an average cost basis of ~$62,000. Sells were limited to capture cash for reinvestment, avoiding full liquidations during rallies like the July 2025 surge to $123,000.
Profit and loss
+96.5%
Buy and hold +71.4%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$96,509
Realized profit
$12,195
BTC accumulated
1.58 BTC
CAGR
59.2%
Buy and hold profit and loss
$71,428
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Cash yield
“Taking advantage of volatility”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Cash Yield approach emphasizes generating fiat returns by selling more aggressively on rallies, using volatility to build a cash buffer. This suits investors seeking liquidity without fully exiting crypto exposure.
The algorithm bought during corrections (e.g., post-January 2025 consolidation) and sold larger portions on rebounds (e.g., December 2024 rally and the 2025 climb to $120,000). This created a compounding cash position, with minimal Bitcoin retained for long-term upside.
By overweighting sells, this strategy produced significant cash yields, outperforming buy-and-hold through active swing trading without the risk of holding through deep drawdowns.
Profit and loss
+97.8%
Buy and hold +71.4%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$97,866
Realized profit
$90,585
BTC accumulated
0.37 BTC
CAGR
60%
Buy and hold profit and loss
$71,428
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Balanced
“A blended approach”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Balanced approach combines accumulation and yield, using both buys and sells to grow Bitcoin exposure while building cash reserves. This hybrid mitigates risk for investors seeking diversification.
The algorithm capitalized on major moves: buying heavily during the September 2024 dip to $53,000 and early 2025 dips below $100,000, while selling half-positions on rallies like July 2025's ATH break. This balanced reinvestment with profit-taking.
This strategy provided the highest overall return by leveraging both asset growth and cash flow, ideal for hedging against uncertainty.
Profit and loss
+100.4%
Buy and hold +71.4%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$100,448
Realized profit
$61,959
BTC accumulated
1.06 BTC
CAGR
61.4%
Buy and hold profit and loss
$71,428
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Results
Three different ways to trade all time highs
BTC results by scenario
Accumulation
Cash yield
Balanced
Initial capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Profit and loss
$96,509
$97,866
$100,448
Profit and loss (%)
+96.5%
+97.8%
+100.4%
Realized profit
$12,195
$90,585
$61,959
BTC accumulated
1.58 BTC
0.37 BTC
1.06 BTC
CAGR
59.2%
60%
61.4%
Buy and hold profit and loss
$71,428
$71,428
$71,428
Buy and hold profit and loss (%)
+71.4%
+71.4%
+71.4%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Replicate the strategy
Do it yourself: the settings behind all three approaches.
Accumulation scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $3,500 when price drops 2.5%
Exit trade
Sell $1,5000 when price rises 2.8%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
6 hour
Period
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Cash yield scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $20,000 when price drops 2.4%
Exit trade
Sell $42,000 when price rises 4%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Balanced scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $20,000 when price drops 3.9%
Exit trade
Sell $13,000 when price rises 4%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published August 13, 2025.
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