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The results
“Bitcoin”
“Ethereum”
“XRP”
“SUI”
“Solana”
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Case study: Arch Public for crypto
Thriving in Turmoil
How the Arbitrage Algorithm dominates crypto bear markets
BTC · ETH · XRP · SUI · SOL
Crypto
Arbitrage Algorithm
Valued August 19, 2025
7 min read
Volatility is your edge
In the volatile world of crypto, bear markets and downturns often erode investor capital, turning promising portfolios into significant losses. Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm stands out by capitalizing on these challenging conditions through strategic arbitrage opportunities, delivering consistent positive returns even as asset prices decline or stagnate. This case study examines the algorithm's performance across four key cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP, during documented market downturns between 2021 and 2025. Using a starting capital of $100,000, the algorithm employs dynamic long entry and exit parameters to exploit price inefficiencies, resulting in substantial PnL gains that far outpace traditional buy-and-hold strategies.
The importance of deploying our Arbitrage Algorithm during bear markets cannot be overstated. While bull markets reward passive holding with upward momentum, downturns expose the vulnerabilities of such approaches, leading to drawdowns and opportunity costs. Our algorithm thrives in these environments by actively arbitraging mispricings, generating returns through substantial gains while mitigating downside risk. In fact, running the algorithm in bear phases is arguably more critical than in bull runs, as it transforms market adversity into profitable trades, preserves capital, and positions portfolios for amplified recovery when conditions improve. This study highlights real-world data, demonstrating how the algorithm not only survives but excels in adversity, offering a resilient edge for crypto traders.
Bitcoin
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+132.34%
Buy and hold
+48.62%
Profit and loss
$132,339
Ethereum
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+85%
Buy and hold
+2.01%
Profit and loss
$85,014
XRP
January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+62.29%
Buy and hold
-2.37%
Profit and loss
$62,292
SUI
December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+28.08%
Buy and hold
-10.7%
Profit and loss
$28,082
Solana
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+421.55%
Buy and hold
+25.85%
Profit and loss
$421,553
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade
“Bitcoin”
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm, accumulation configuration
Amidst the 2022 crypto winter and subsequent recovery phases, BTC faced prolonged downturns. We applied the Arbitrage Algorithm in an accumulation configuration to maximize returns.
As markets began to trend downward, the Arbitrage Algorithm stayed the course and bought volatile dips. Notice the quick profit taking that occurred March 2022 before price descended lower.
Amid the fears that value would decline below $10,000, the Arbitrage Algorithm aggressively bought the bottom during 2023, and was positioned for large profit once the trend reversed.
The algorithm delivered +132.34% profits, highlighting its ability to generate outsized gains in adverse conditions.
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+132.34%
Buy and hold +48.62%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$132,339
BTC holdings, if you held the position to date
3.31 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$48,617
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade
“Ethereum”
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm, accumulation configuration
While Bitcoin reversed trend so did Ethereum. With a similar accumulation strategy that we applied to Bitcoin, the Arbitrage Algorithm diligently took advantage of volatility and established a low cost basis by the time the market bottomed out.
The algorithm achieved a +85% return by arbitraging price dips, far exceeding the performance of a buy and hold strategy which, when accounting for inflation, would be negative.
These periods of prolonged, severe drawdown are the hardest to manage psychologically. Most crypto investors tend to either panic sell during these periods or ignore the markets completely, missing out on the best buying opportunities that only occur every few years.
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+85%
Buy and hold +2.01%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$85,014
ETH holdings, if you held the position to date
52.48 ETH
Buy and hold profit and loss
$2,008
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade
“XRP”
January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm, maximal cash yield strategy
The Arbitrage Algorithm can perform in short term drawdowns as well as long term drawdowns.
We applied a maximal cash yield strategy to show that the Arbitrage Algorithm excels in producing cash profits during prolonged drawdowns.
This recent downturn period saw XRP in a consolidation phase with negative price momentum. The algorithm turned this into +62.29% profit through targeted arbitrage, underscoring its value in short-term bearish trends.
Take note of its ability to capture profits in extreme volatility as seen during the sharp spike and subsequent drop in March.
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+62.29%
Buy and hold -2.37%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$62,292
XRP holdings, if you held the position to date
5,997 XRP
Buy and hold profit and loss
-$2,373
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade
“SUI”
December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
Another example of strong performance during sharp, short term downtrends in altcoin markets.
SUI dropped from over $5 to under $1.8 in 4 months. The algorithm turned this into +28%, capturing a 38% delta between the Arbitrage Algorithm and a buy and hold strategy.
Buy and hold strategies put your position at the mercy of the market and don’t allow for measured deployment of capital when it makes sense.
The Arbitrage Algorithm feathers you into a position over time giving you the advantage when price fluctuates wildly.
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+28.08%
Buy and hold -10.7%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$28,082
SUI holdings, if you held the position to date
24,249
Buy and hold profit and loss
-$10,700
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade
“Solana”
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm, accumulation configuration
For our final study, we applied the Arbitrage Algorithm in an accumulation configuration during the steep drop from over $250 to under $15.
These are the drawdowns where people lose all faith and declare a coin dead.
Unlike our average trader, the Arbitrage Algorithm was steadfast in accumulating during opportune periods.
The Arbitrage Algorithm produced +421.55% returns, demonstrating strong performance in high-volatility altcoins as price climbed 10x in quick succession.
Arbitrage Algorithm returns
+421.55%
Buy and hold +25.85%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$421,553
SOL holdings, if you held the position to date
2,728 SOL
Buy and hold profit and loss
$25,850
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Results
Outperforming in bear markets
BTC · ETH · XRP · SUI · SOL results by scenario
Bitcoin
Ethereum
XRP
SUI
Solana
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025
December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Initial capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Profit and loss
$132,339
$85,014
$62,292
$28,082
$421,553
Profit and loss (%)
+132.34%
+85%
+62.29%
+28.08%
+421.55%
Holdings, if you held the position to date
3.31 BTC
52.48 ETH
5,997 XRP
24,249
2,728 SOL
Buy and hold profit and loss
$48,617
$2,008
-$2,373
-$10,700
$25,850
Buy and hold profit and loss (%)
+48.62%
+2.01%
-2.37%
-10.7%
+25.85%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Replicate the strategy
Do it yourself: the settings behind all five runs.
Bitcoin scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $2,500 when price drops 5%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 5%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Ethereum scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $2,000 when price drops 5%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 5%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
XRP scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $6,000 when price drops 4%
Exit trade
Sell $100,000 when price rises 12%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025
SUI scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $13,000 when price drops 7%
Exit trade
Sell $15,000 when price rises 9%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025
Solana scenario
Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $1,500 when price drops 7%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 9%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published August 21, 2025.
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