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Contents
The results
“Cycle accumulation”
“Cycle swing arbitrage”
“Short target swing accumulation”
“Short target swing arbitrage”
“Ethereum: volatility harvesting”
“Solana: volatility harvesting”
“XRP: volatility harvesting”
“SUI: volatility harvesting”
Side by side
Algorithm settings
A path forward
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Case studies
BTC · ETH · SOL · XRP · SUI
Case study: Arch Public for crypto
Dynamics of The Oracle Protocol
Showcasing the Oracle Protocol across assets and strategies.
BTC · ETH · SOL · XRP · SUI
Crypto
Oracle Protocol
Valued October 5, 2025
11 min read
The Oracle Protocol: a dynamic profit flywheel
In the world of cryptocurrency trading, the Oracle Protocol emerges as an evolution in algorithmic performance. By incorporating advanced features like dynamic position sizing and cost basis conditions, this algorithm transforms static trading strategies into adaptive, high-performance systems. Imagine a tool that intelligently scales your investments as your capital grows, creating a self-reinforcing flywheel effect. Profits are funneled back into larger positions, compounding returns and amplifying gains over time, far surpassing traditional buy-and-hold approaches.
This case study explores how the Oracle Protocol adapts across diverse assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and SUI. Tailored to meet unique client objectives, whether a need to accumulate an asset or aggressively grow profits, the algorithm can run a recipe set for each asset’s volatility and market dynamics.
The Oracle Protocol represents an advancement in automation and performance for all.
Bitcoin: cycle accumulation
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+146%
Buy and hold
+124%
Bitcoin: cycle swing arbitrage
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+231%
Buy and hold
+124%
Bitcoin: short target swing accumulation
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+94%
Buy and hold
+86%
Bitcoin: short target swing arbitrage
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+117%
Buy and hold
+86%
Ethereum: volatility harvesting
January 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+140%
Buy and hold
+105%
Solana: volatility harvesting
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+53%
Buy and hold
+12%
XRP: volatility harvesting
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+66%
Buy and hold
+30%
SUI: volatility harvesting
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+32%
Buy and hold
-25%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Bitcoin
“Cycle accumulation”
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
The Oracle Protocol greatly reduces the need to adjust parameters, even over multi-year periods, as the algorithm adapts to account growth.
As of October 2025, Bitcoin continues to find new all time highs. In reaching a cycle peak, as demonstrated in this example, the Oracle Protocol is able to continue buying low, reducing cost basis.
When markets come out of a bottom, the algorithm is able to realize profit at the first market high while continuing to buy intermediate dips in price.
With conservative settings geared towards accumulation, the Oracle Protocol outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy.
Oracle Protocol return
+146%
Buy and hold +124%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$179,879 / +146%
Realized profit and loss
$28,314
BTC holdings, if held to date
1.85 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$124,856 / +124%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Bitcoin
“Cycle swing arbitrage”
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
For those seeking pinpoint, aggressive profit taking, the Oracle Protocol can run a recipe that sells off at peaks and buys successively larger quantities of an asset due to the new dynamic position sizing feature.
In this example, we’ve created a pure swing trading strategy by selling off 50% of the accumulated position for every sell order.
The successive buy orders have increasingly larger capital pools to draw from, creating a flywheel effect. In this case study, no additional capital has been added.
The resulting returns far outpace a buy-and-hold or dollar-cost-average strategy and have produced a realized return over 2x the initial capital.
Oracle Protocol return
+231%
Buy and hold +124%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$261,452 / +231%
Realized profit and loss
$218,392
BTC holdings, if held to date
1.05 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$124,856 / +124%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Bitcoin
“Short target swing accumulation”
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
We narrow the focus of this case study to the near term. As Bitcoin has experienced a rally over the last 18 months, the path has been far from straightforward.
Regardless of the path to new all-time-highs, the Oracle Protocol is able to adapt across long and short term price action.
In this example, the algorithm diligently buys during the 9 month consolidation period before a decisive break higher, where it takes profit and continues buying during the 30% drawdown.
As price continues to rise higher, the algorithm maintains its strategy, not only producing a higher overall return than a buy-and-hold strategy, but also producing $70,000 in realized profit with $100,000 initial capital.
Oracle Protocol return
+94%
Buy and hold +86%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$111,525 / +94%
Realized profit and loss
$70,049
BTC holdings, if held to date
1.16 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$86,396 / +86%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Bitcoin
“Short target swing arbitrage”
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
In this example, we demonstrate our aggressive, swing trader recipe on a shorter time horizon.
By setting the Exit Trade Size to 100%, the algorithm will sell off the entire accumulated position when a sell order is produced. The flywheel effect seen in the Cycle Swing Arbitrage strategy appears again as the algorithm dynamically increases the size of buy orders following the sell order.
Additionally, sell orders only trigger when price is 75% over cost basis. This sets a minimum profit target.
Combined with exhaustive buy orders, the Oracle Protocol is able to take full advantage of swings that leave most traders hesitant.
Oracle Protocol return
+117%
Buy and hold +86%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$149,415 / +117%
Realized profit and loss
$75,330
BTC holdings, if held to date
1.9 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$86,396 / +86%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Ethereum
“Ethereum: volatility harvesting”
January 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
Bitcoin produces great examples of the Oracle Protocol succeeding in trending markets, but how does it perform in highly volatile markets?
We shift our focus to Ethereum, which has seen a number of roundtrips over the last 18 months. These altcoin markets have been extremely difficult on buy-and-hold strategies.
Running the Oracle Protocol with an arbitrage-focused recipe, we are able to capture significant realized returns and outperformance.
Should Ethereum reach new highs or reverse trend and return to lows once more, the Oracle Protocol will continue to profit.
Oracle Protocol return
+140%
Buy and hold +105%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$145,266 / +140%
Realized profit and loss
$218,392
ETH holdings, if held to date
21.9 ETH
Buy and hold profit and loss
$105,429 / +105%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: Solana
“Solana: volatility harvesting”
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
Demonstrating the versatility of the Oracle Protocol, we applied it to Solana year-to-date. Solana has been quite volatile, but produces a much different pattern of price action than Ethereum.
In this example, while buy-and-hold strategies produced a +12% return, less than an equivalent investment in the S&P 500 index, the Oracle Protocol produced a significant 53% return.
Oracle Protocol return
+53%
Buy and hold +12%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$58,809 / +53%
Realized profit and loss
$12,511
SOL holdings, if held to date
524 SOL
Buy and hold profit and loss
$12,871 / +12.87%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: XRP
“XRP: volatility harvesting”
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
While XRP has made headlines throughout the year, the price action has produced periods of extreme volatility and consolidating action.
While the Oracle Protocol can run recipes that accumulate altcoins, we applied an arbitrage-style parameter set to take advantage of the incredible spikes in price that are fairly unique to XRP.
The result is a return over 2x greater than a buy-and-hold strategy year-to-date.
Although it is not optimized to accumulate, this strategy continues to hold over 41,000 XRP at period end.
Oracle Protocol return
+66%
Buy and hold +30%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$70,020 / +66%
Realized profit and loss
$61,906
XRP holdings, if held to date
41,733 XRP
Buy and hold profit and loss
$30,396 / +30%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Trade by trade: SUI
“SUI: volatility harvesting”
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025 · Daily chart
Finally, we demonstrate the Oracle Protocol in a bearish, consolidating market. SUI has produced a loss of -25% for buy-and-hold strategies year-to-date. Long, drawn out bearish price action is incredibly tough to trade, especially for someone manually trading. The emotional toil continues to increase in weight as time goes on.
The Oracle Protocol handles these periods with incredible efficiency, producing a +32% return, or a delta of 57% from the buy-and-hold approach.
No matter your stance on the technological benefits of a certain cryptocurrency, the Oracle Protocol is designed to help you profit no matter the outcome.
Oracle Protocol return
+32%
Buy and hold -25%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$32,741 / +32%
Realized profit and loss
$31,645
SUI holdings, if held to date
15,725 SUI
Buy and hold profit and loss
-$25,523 / -25%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Results
Outperformance across any asset
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
Cycle accumulation
Cycle swing arbitrage
Short target swing accumulation
Short target swing arbitrage
Period
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Initial capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Profit and loss
$179,879
$261,452
$111,525
$149,415
Profit and loss (%)
+146%
+231%
+94%
+117%
Realized profit and loss
$28,314
$218,392
$70,049
$75,330
BTC holdings, if held to date
1.85 BTC
1.05 BTC
1.16 BTC
1.9 BTC
Buy and hold profit and loss
$124,856
$124,856
$86,396
$86,396
Buy and hold profit and loss (%)
+124%
+124%
+86%
+86%
Ethereum, Solana, XRP and SUI
Ethereum, Solana, XRP and SUI
Ethereum
Solana
XRP
SUI
Period
January 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Initial capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Profit and loss
$145,266
$58,809
$70,020
$32,741
Profit and loss (%)
+140%
+53%
+66%
+32%
Realized profit and loss
$218,392
$12,511
$61,906
$31,645
Holdings, if held to date
21.9 ETH
524 SOL
41,733 XRP
15,725 SUI
Buy and hold profit and loss
$105,429
$12,871
$30,396
-$25,523
Buy and hold profit and loss (%)
+105%
+12.87%
+30%
-25%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Replicate the strategy
Do it yourself: the Oracle Protocol settings behind each run.
Bitcoin: cycle accumulation
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-5%
Exit threshold
3.9%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
50%
Time frame
1 day
Period
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
6%
Exit trade size
1%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$500
Fixed exit trade size
$500
Bitcoin: cycle swing arbitrage
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-5.9%
Exit threshold
3.5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
49%
Time frame
1 day
Period
February 1, 2021 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
50%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$10,000
Fixed exit trade size
$15,000
Bitcoin: short target swing accumulation
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-3.1%
Exit threshold
2.5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
30%
Time frame
1 day
Period
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
10%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$6000
Fixed exit trade size
$5000
Bitcoin: short target swing arbitrage
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-3.1%
Exit threshold
2.5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Buy below cost basis only
Checked
Sell profit threshold
75%
Time frame
1 day
Period
March 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
100%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$10,000
Fixed exit trade size
$5,000
Ethereum: volatility harvesting
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-4.5%
Exit threshold
5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Buy below cost basis only
Checked
Sell profit threshold
30%
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 1, 2024 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
15%
Exit trade size
40%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$6000
Fixed exit trade size
$20,000
Solana: volatility harvesting
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-5%
Exit threshold
5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
35%
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
7%
Exit trade size
5%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$5,000
Fixed exit trade size
$5,000
XRP: volatility harvesting
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-4.5%
Exit threshold
10%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
10%
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
17%
Exit trade size
50%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$8,000
Fixed exit trade size
$5,000
SUI: volatility harvesting
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-5%
Exit threshold
5%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
10%
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 1, 2025 to October 5, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
5%
Exit trade size
10%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$5,000
Fixed exit trade size
$15,000
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets.
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