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Contents
The results
The subject: Strategy
The investor's dilemma
The algorithm
“Through the entire boom and give-back”
“The great stock that went nowhere”
“A profit in a falling market”
Side by side
Why the results differ
The real lesson
A path forward
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Case studies
MSTR
Case study: Arch Public for stocks
Discipline over conviction on MSTR
How the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities beat the passive benchmarks by as much as 177% across three runs on the market's most believed-in stock.
The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto clients run every day, applied unchanged to a single stock: Strategy (MSTR).
MSTR
Stock
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
Valued June 17, 2026
5 min read
Our first equities test was a stock that drifted. This one moves violently, and is fiercely believed in.
Tesla, our first case study, spent years going sideways. For the second we wanted the opposite kind of test. We took the exact same algorithm, unchanged, and pointed it at MSTR across three windows, each starting from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash.
Scenario 1
Daily chart, 3 years
Strategy
+181.5%
DCA
+3.7%
Scenario 2
Daily chart, post-run
Strategy
+88.7%
Buy and hold
+8.0%
DCA
-13.6%
Scenario 3
4-hour chart, 2026 drop
Strategy
+20.2%
Buy and hold
-26.2%
Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Strategy, MSTR
The market's most believed-in stock, and a violent round trip
MSTR built one of the most devoted followings in the market, a community that treats holding as conviction rather than a trade. That belief was rewarded spectacularly, and then it was tested just as hard.
Price levels per public market data. 10-for-1 split effective August 2024. All-time-high close of $473.8 on November 20, 2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Drawdown from the peak, to roughly $116 by June 2026
-75%
All a buy-and-hold investor had to show for the full round trip, more than two years later
+8.0%
August 2024 10-for-1 split effective
November 20, 2024 All-time-high close of $473.8
June 2026 Roughly $116, a 75% drawdown from the peak
Conviction is not a strategy
A 15-bagger followed by a 75% drawdown, while a passionate community insists you should never sell, is the position that quietly does the most damage.
Belief never trims, and never re-enters
It never tells you to take a profit into strength or to buy back on confirmation after a washout.
Decision fatigue compounds the damage
A stock this volatile demands hundreds of emotional calls. Decision quality falls as the stakes pile up.
An algorithm takes the bias out
It does not predict MSTR and it does not fall in love with it. It executes a plan.
Conviction tells you to hold the whole way up, which feels like genius, then to hold the whole way down, which feels like loyalty.
It is a reason to be in the stock. It is not a system for deciding when, how much, or at what price.
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
What Market Wave actually does
Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same one already running across crypto. It does three things with rules instead of emotions, and it treats volatility as the opportunity rather than the enemy.
Ride confirmed moves
It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch, a headline, or community sentiment.
Exit on rules, not nerves
It takes profits on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than hoping the move runs forever.
Step aside in chop
In indecision it holds cash and waits, exactly when human investors tend to overtrade.
Backtested results. Trading stocks involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Scenario 1
“Through the entire boom and give-back”
June 16, 2023 to June 17, 2026 · Daily chart
Algorithm return
+181.5%
DCA +3.7%
$100,000 became
$281,529
Realized, banked profit
$260,841
Cash on hand at the end
$139,661
Open full-size chart
The number to read Every dollar of this return is realized cash. The open position is even underwater on paper, yet the strategy is up 181.5%.
Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 2
“The great stock that went nowhere”
March 1, 2024 to June 17, 2026 · Daily chart
Algorithm return
+88.7%
Buy and hold +8.0%
DCA -13.6%
$100,000 became
$188,739
Realized, banked profit
$102,859
Open full-size chart
The number to read Same stock, same window, three outcomes. The strategy beats buy-and-hold and DCA at once, on banked cash alone.
Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 3
“A profit in a falling market”
January 1, 2026 to June 17, 2026 · 4-hour chart
Algorithm return
+20.2%
Buy and hold -26.2%, outperformance +46.4 percentage points
$100,000 became
$120,223
Realized, banked profit
$27,357
Open full-size chart
The number to read Holding cost a quarter of your capital. The same price action, traded by rules, turned a profit.
Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Three windows, one pattern
MSTR results by scenario
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Window
3-year daily
Post-run daily
5.5-month 4-hour
Strategy return
+181.5%
+88.7%
+20.2%
Buy and hold
+8.0%
-26.2%
DCA benchmark
+3.7%
-13.6%
Banked profit
$260,841
$102,859
$27,357
In every window the algorithm finished well ahead of the passive alternative, and did so entirely through realized, banked cash rather than a fortunate open position.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Realized cash, not a lucky position
In all three scenarios the open position on June 17, 2026 carried an unrealized loss, because MSTR closed below the strategy's average cost. The banked cash alone carried every result.
$260,841
Realized in Scenario 1
$102,859
Realized in Scenario 2
$27,357
Realized in Scenario 3
The edge is not prediction, and it is not diamond-handed conviction. It is conversion: turning the volatility that believers simply endured into realized gains and cash on the sidelines.
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Discipline beats conviction
01
Conviction is not a strategy
Belief told holders to get in and stay in. It never told them when to take a profit, how much to trim, or when to step back in after a washout.
02
The round trip is where it gets expensive
A historic run followed by a 75% drawdown is how a 15-bagger turns into an 8.0% buy-and-hold result for the average participant.
03
Decision fatigue makes the investor their own worst enemy
The same MSTR price action that produced an 8.0% hold and a 26.2% loss instead produced returns of 88.7% and 20.2% using Arch Public algorithms.
For educational purposes only. Trading stocks involves significant risk.
How much of your portfolio is managed by conviction instead of a strategy?
Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the same algorithms our crypto clients trust to individual stocks. Tesla was the first case study. MSTR is the second.
Zero custody. Your assets never leave your account. Full control. Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions. The algorithm executes the plan, so emotions do not.
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published June 18, 2026.
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