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Contents
The results
The subject: BTC treasury
The investor's dilemma
The algorithm
“Rapid scale, high cost, high volatility”
“Operational hedging”
“Strive/Semler”
Side by side
A path forward
Book a demo
Case studies
BTC treasury
Case study: Arch Public for crypto
Follow The Money
Metaplanet, mining companies, and conservative entrants: how most corporate Bitcoin treasuries fall short of optimal execution
BTC treasury
Crypto
Intelligence Algorithm and Oracle Protocol
Valued December 31, 2025
7 min read
The suboptimal reality for most adopters
Following Strategy's pioneering path, dozens of public companies rushed into Bitcoin treasuries in 2024 to 2025, collectively pushing holdings past 1.1 million BTC. Standouts include Metaplanet (~35,102 BTC), miners like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms, and conservative players like the newly combined Strive/Semler (~12,798 BTC).
These adopters achieved impressive scale and gains during rallies, but their strategies, aggressive peak buying, operational dependencies, or simplistic DCA, left them exposed to the same volatility risks Strategy faced, often resulting in amplified drawdowns, higher average costs, and suboptimal risk-adjusted yields.
This case study examines these followers to reveal a clear pattern: Bitcoin works as a treasury asset, but blunt, undisciplined approaches fall short for fiduciary responsibility. Arch Public's algorithms offer the missing de-risking layer, delivering lower costs, smoother returns, and sustainable adoption.
2025 scenario performance
Arch Public blended
Blended return
+4.4%
Buy and hold
-7.3%
Outperformance vs buy and hold
+11.8%
Cost basis
$95,505
BTC acquired
+23.24 BTC
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The wave of corporate followers
Inspired by Strategy's success, adoption exploded globally. International players like Japan's Metaplanet mirrored the aggressive model; miners such as MARA and Riot leveraged operational output; newer or conservative entrants (e.g., Strive/Semler merger) took cautious positions.
By January 2026, over 145 public companies hold Bitcoin, with the top 100 alone exceeding 1.1 million BTC. Yet most rely on variations of buy-and-hold, simple DCA, or mining-dependent HODL, effective in bull markets but vulnerable in corrections, lacking systematic timing discipline.
2024 to 2025 Following Strategy's pioneering path, dozens of public companies rush into Bitcoin treasuries
2025 Metaplanet scales its treasury to ~35,102 BTC through debt-financed purchases
Late 2025 Riot Platforms holds ~18,005 BTC after late-2025 sales
January 2026 Over 145 public companies hold Bitcoin, the top 100 alone exceeding 1.1 million BTC
Common pitfalls: why most strategies remain suboptimal
Across follower adopters, aggressive internationals, hybrid miners, and conservative newcomers, the same core deficiencies emerge, preventing optimal Bitcoin treasury execution.
No timing discipline
Peak and momentum buys inflate average costs (e.g., Metaplanet's heavy Q4 2025 purchases at elevated levels).
Simple DCA or opportunistic approaches miss fear-driven dips, resulting in higher entry prices overall.
Full volatility exposure
Miners layer operational risks (hash rate volatility, energy costs, difficulty adjustments) on top of Bitcoin price swings.
Conservative strategies limit leverage but still suffer full downside during corrections without any protective mechanism.
Passive HODL of mined or purchased BTC amplifies impairments during inevitable drawdowns.
Structural bias
FOMO-driven aggression pushes buys into euphoria.
Passive or simplistic HODL overrides fiduciary prudence.
Result: higher balance-sheet impairments, intensified shareholder pressure, and inferior Bitcoin-per-dollar returns compared to disciplined, intelligent alternatives.
Without systematic de-risking, even well-intentioned treasuries repeat the same costly mistakes: overpaying in peaks, underperforming in troughs, and exposing stakeholders to unnecessary volatility.
Intelligence Algorithm and Oracle Protocol
Arch Public's algorithms: the prudent alternative
Arch Public provides the essential de-risking algorithms for corporate treasuries: a powerful suite of automated algorithms that tame Bitcoin's volatility while intelligently building positions. These tools can run recipes that arbitrage volatility for steady yield, accumulate at optimal prices, or blend both strategies, deploying simultaneously across Bitcoin and multiple crypto assets for maximum flexibility and risk mitigation.
Arbitrage Algorithm
Capitalizes on price volatility.
Consistent, static capital deployment.
Delivers returns from proven market inefficiencies.
Oracle Protocol
Dynamic position sizing for fluid treasuries.
Recipes for conservative and aggressive approaches.
Provides agile performance in fast-moving conditions.
Intelligence Algorithm
Layered proprietary accumulation algorithm.
Analyzes large timeframe patterns, volatility, and conditions.
Executes buys primarily in dips and troughs.
Recipes across long and short horizons to secure best entries and avoid euphoric highs.
This fully automated, emotion-free system serves as the disciplined partner that manual approaches lack: buying when markets are fearful, generating yield on rallies, and achieving lower average costs with substantially reduced drawdown risk. Tailored for fiduciary responsibility, it's the prudent evolution for corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Metaplanet
“Rapid scale, high cost, high volatility”
2025 · MTPLF daily chart
Metaplanet aggressively scaled its Bitcoin treasury to ~35,102 BTC in 2025 through debt-financed purchases, frequently executed at elevated prices during the late-year rally.
This approach delivered strong mid-year stock performance, surging from lows near $1.51 to a peak of ~$16 (over 10x gains), and firmly established Metaplanet as Asia's leading corporate Bitcoin treasury company.
However, the timing-agnostic strategy mirrored Strategy's core risks: significant exposure to late-2025 Bitcoin corrections; an inflated average acquisition cost of ~$102,000 to $107,000 per BTC; and a sharp share price drawdown from highs, resulting in a modest full-year return of +11.6% despite the dramatic mid-year rally.
Key lesson: Even rapid international adoption repeats the same pitfalls of indiscriminate buying, elevated costs, amplified volatility, and impaired risk-adjusted outcomes, without systematic de-risking.
Metaplanet 2025 return
+11.6%
Metaplanet est. avg. cost basis
~$107,716
Bitcoin held
~35,102 BTC
Share price, low to peak
$1.51 to ~$16
Open full-size chart
Historical market data, not an Arch Public run. For educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Hybrid miners
“Operational hedging”
2025 · MARA daily chart
Miners like MARA Holdings (~46,000 to 50,000+ BTC, primarily mined) and Riot Platforms (~18,005 BTC after late-2025 sales) benefit from a unique hybrid model: producing Bitcoin through operations rather than relying solely on market purchases.
This provides natural hedging against some purchase-timing risks, with MARA achieving a remarkably low average cost basis of ~$51,080 per BTC thanks to efficient mining economics.
However, the treasury remains fully exposed to Bitcoin's price swings, compounded by additional operational volatilities: hash rate fluctuations, energy cost spikes, network difficulty adjustments, and market-driven sales (e.g., Riot's late-2025 reductions).
Key lesson: Even with mining advantages, hybrid treasuries suffer amplified drawdowns and suboptimal risk-adjusted returns without disciplined de-risking.
MARA 2025 return
-47.8%
MARA est. avg. cost basis
~$51,080
MARA holdings
~46,000 to 50,000+ BTC
Riot Platforms holdings
~18,005 BTC
Open full-size chart
Historical market data, not an Arch Public run. For educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Conservative and newer adopters
“Strive/Semler”
2025 · ASST daily chart
More conservative and newer entrants, such as the merged Strive/Semler (~12,798 BTC post-acquisition), adopt smaller Bitcoin allocations using simpler dollar-cost averaging or opportunistic buys, deliberately avoiding leverage while seeking exposure to the asset's long-term upside.
This risk-averse approach limits severe downside and appeals to boards prioritizing capital preservation, delivering a solid +39.5% stock return in 2025 amid Bitcoin's volatile cycles.
However, the lack of intelligent timing discipline comes at a cost: missed optimal entries during fear-driven dips; higher average acquisition costs in euphoric markets (~$90,000 per BTC); and lower Bitcoin yield per dollar deployed compared to more precise strategies.
Key lesson: Conservative treasuries achieve stability but remain suboptimal, paying more and capturing less upside, without an automated, data-driven algorithm to buy prudently and avoid chasing highs.
Strive 2025 return
+39.5%
Strive est. avg. cost basis
~$90,000
Bitcoin held
~12,798 BTC
Open full-size chart
Historical market data, not an Arch Public run. For educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A side-by-side comparison
Public adopters' aggressive, timing-agnostic approach built historic scale but at the cost of amplified volatility and severe drawdowns, while Arch Public's algorithms provide disciplined, superior alternatives. This side-by-side reveals the clear evolution toward prudent de-risking.
Follow The Money
Aspect
Public BTC treasury adopters
Arch Public algorithms
Timing discipline
Low (buys at any price)
High (dip-focused, pattern-based, peak-avoiding)
Average cost basis
Elevated by peak and momentum buys
Materially lower (trough-targeted accumulation)
Volatility exposure
Maximal (leverage + full cycle drawdowns)
Strongly mitigated (dynamic yield + protection)
Risk-adjusted yield
High upside but severe impairments
Smoother, superior Bitcoin-per-dollar returns
Fiduciary fit
Aggressive/speculative
Prudent, responsible, and board-aligned
2025 performance
An Arch Public portfolio allocated $1M to each of its three flagship algorithms delivered a blended +4.46% total return in 2025, successfully acquiring 23.24 BTC with an average cost basis of $95,505 and generating $106,127 in realized profit.
The suite mitigated Bitcoin's extreme 2025 swings, from highs above $125,000 to lows near $90,000, achieving a 161% relative performance improvement to a buy and hold strategy.
2025 performance
Algorithm
Intelligence Algorithm (0.5, precise)
Intelligence Algorithm (0.7, aggressive)
Oracle Protocol
Blended
BTC acquired
10.66 BTC
10.24 BTC
2.34 BTC
23.24 BTC
2025 return
3.4%
-0.6%
10.6%
4.46%
Key focus
Maximal unrealized PnL via low-cost accumulation
Faster buildup with strong long-term foundation
Cash-yielding, capital-protective strategy
Blended potential for optimized yield + growth
Arch Public blended return +4.46%. 2025 Bitcoin buy and hold -7.3%.
The bottom line: Arch Public algorithms achieved an +11.8% effective outperformance over a simple buy-and-hold benchmark.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
The wave of follower adopters, Metaplanet's rapid international scale, miners' operational hybrids, and conservative newcomers like Strive/Semler, has expanded Bitcoin's corporate legitimacy and demonstrated real-world viability across diverse strategies.
Yet each approach replicates the same core limitations: indiscriminate timing, full volatility exposure, and structural biases that inflate costs, amplify drawdowns, and deliver suboptimal risk-adjusted yields. From peak-heavy buys to missed dips and operational risks, these treasuries highlight that Bitcoin exposure without disciplined de-risking remains unnecessarily costly and volatile for most fiduciaries.
Arch Public's algorithms offer the clear evolution: a sophisticated, automated suite that transforms blunt or passive accumulation into prudent, intelligent execution, buying fearfully, avoiding euphoria, generating yield in rallies, and securing lower average costs with dramatically reduced impairment risk.
Corporate treasurers ready to adopt Bitcoin sustainably and responsibly: this is the superior path. Schedule a demo today to see customized projections and pilot our de-risking algorithms tailored precisely to your treasury's goals.
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published January 14, 2026.
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