Skip to the case study
All case studies
Contents
The results
“Bitcoin: algorithmic positioning”
“Fitting the right algorithm”
“Higher timeframes reduce noise”
“Forward deploying a strategy”
“Ethereum: Recipe #18”
“Solana: Recipe #19”
“XRP: Recipe #20”
Side by side
Algorithm settings
A path forward
Book a demo
Case studies
BTC · ETH · SOL · XRP
Case study: Arch Public for crypto
Enduring The Drop
How to set Arch Public algorithm recipes for the big opportunity.
BTC · ETH · SOL · XRP
Crypto
Oracle Protocol
Valued November 21, 2025
8 min read
Looking beyond the horizon
In 2025, the cryptocurrency market has presented significant challenges, with Bitcoin declining approximately 9% year-to-date as of late November amid a sharp correction from earlier peaks above $120,000, driven by macroeconomic pressures, tariff concerns, and a broader risk-off environment despite strong fundamentals.
Yet this has unfolded against a backdrop of historic institutional adoption: spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have amassed tens of billions in assets under management, with BlackRock’s IBIT becoming one of the most successful ETF launches ever; major banks like JPMorgan have embraced blockchain-based tokens and accepted Bitcoin as loan collateral; pension funds and sovereign entities have expanded direct holdings; and regulatory tailwinds, including streamlined ETF approvals and pro-crypto policy shifts, have solidified digital assets as a recognized institutional asset class.
At Arch Public, we view such pullbacks not as setbacks, but as prime opportunities for sophisticated, algorithm-driven strategies that thrive across all market conditions. Our proprietary Oracle Protocol exemplifies this resilience, delivering over 300% returns since the previous cycle high while traditional buy-and-hold approaches have generated only 28% during the same period, effectively filtering out market noise and capitalizing on high-conviction signals in both trending and range-bound environments.
Today’s price action mirrors the setups that previously fueled these outsized gains, creating an ideal window for clients to deploy the same adaptive, data-driven algorithms. By positioning with Arch Public, clients can transform volatility into sustained alpha and emerge significantly ahead when the next expansion phase begins.
Bitcoin: algorithmic positioning
January 1, 2025 to November 21, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+16.8%
Buy and hold
-9.82%
Bitcoin: fitting the right algorithm
Daily, October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+297%
Buy and hold
+28.9%
Bitcoin: higher timeframes reduce noise
Weekly, October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
Oracle Protocol return
+328%
Buy and hold
+28.9%
Ethereum: Recipe #18
Oracle Protocol return
+118%
Buy and hold
+17.8%
Solana: Recipe #19
Oracle Protocol return
+27.1%
Buy and hold
-33.1%
XRP: Recipe #20
Oracle Protocol return
+36.7%
Buy and hold
-15.1%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Building for Bitcoin
“Bitcoin: algorithmic positioning”
January 1, 2025 to November 21, 2025 · Daily chart
Our algorithms are engineered to adapt not only across diverse assets and investment objectives, but also across varying market conditions.
This case study begins by illustrating how the Oracle Protocol capitalized on the challenging 2025 year-to-date environment. It serves as a prime example of how clients can start with a proven base recipe from Recipe Lab and transform it into a fully automated, hands-off strategy that proves capital-protective, delivering a +25% performance delta over a simple buy-and-hold approach.
Naturally, deploying the same recipe today would yield different results given the evolving market regime. In the following sections, we explore how to dynamically adapt these strategies to prevailing and shifting market conditions for continued outperformance.
Oracle Protocol return
+16.8%
Buy and hold -9.82%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$16,810 / +16.8%
Realized profit and loss
$14,700
BTC holdings, if held to date
0.385 BTC
Current cash
$83,419
Cost basis
$81,067
Buy and hold unrealized profit and loss
-$9,269 / -9.82%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Building for Bitcoin
“Fitting the right algorithm”
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025 · Daily chart
At Arch Public, we see sharp market retracements as prime opportunities for outsized gains. To configure the Oracle Protocol for such environments, we reference the prior cycle peak around October 20, 2021, which triggered an extended bear market.
We then mapped the sequence of major declines and bounces to calibrate dynamic position sizing, deploying capital aggressively at key lows when conviction was highest.
Profit-taking is fully customizable: this example uses a 300% minimum threshold to illustrate maximum realized gains from the cycle bottom to today. Clients preferring earlier exits can simply lower the threshold to lock in profits sooner during the recovery.
Oracle Protocol return
+297%
Buy and hold +28.9%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$297,930 / +297%
Realized profit and loss
$283,822
BTC holdings, if held to date
0.228 BTC
Current cash
$378,155
Cost basis
$24,800
Buy and hold unrealized profit and loss
$19,088 / +28.9%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Building for Bitcoin
“Higher timeframes reduce noise”
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025 · Weekly chart
In prolonged cyclical bear markets, like 2021 to 2022, switching the Oracle Protocol to weekly signals is often superior. This higher timeframe filters out noise, avoids over-trading in choppy conditions, and focuses entries and exits on major structural turning points.
By simply recalibrating the existing logic to weekly candles while preserving core rules, the strategy becomes more patient and precise. The result: +30% higher realized profits than the daily version over the same period, with lower drawdowns and far fewer trades.
Oracle Protocol return
+328%
Buy and hold +28.9%
Initial capital
$100,000
Profit and loss
$328,122 / +328%
Realized profit and loss
$305,883
BTC holdings, if held to date
0.327
Current cash
$397,318
Cost basis
$26,189
Buy and hold unrealized profit and loss
$19,088 / +28.9%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Building for Bitcoin
“Forward deploying a strategy”
From July 2025 · Weekly chart
We can now apply this optimized weekly configuration directly to the current market environment. Here, we forward-deploy the exact recipe from the prior example, starting in July 2025 when Bitcoin was trading above $110,000.
The first buy signal triggered near $95,000, deploying only $10,000 of the initial $100,000 capital allocation. This measured, rules-based accumulation feels far more comfortable than applying FOMO to buy in with large lump-sum purchases at elevated prices earlier in the year.
Arch Public’s algorithms fundamentally reframe dips, bear markets, and even broader recessions, from sources of anxiety into moments of genuine opportunity. They systematically position capital for the inevitable recovery, executing with precision and complete automation, requiring no manual intervention or emotional overrides.
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Altcoin recipes in review
“Ethereum: Recipe #18”
Daily chart
While Bitcoin often delivers steady, trending performance during bull phases, altcoins exhibit far greater volatility, creating both amplified risk and asymmetric reward potential.
For investors maintaining long-term altcoin convictions, pairing core holdings with an Arch Public algorithmic overlay proves highly effective, preserving capital during sharp drawdowns while systematically capturing strong upside with minimal emotional interference.
In the sections ahead, we highlight recent performance updates from several proven altcoin recipes available in Recipe Lab.
This Ethereum recipe demonstrates our approach to algorithms for altcoins.
Oracle Protocol return
+118%
Buy and hold +17.8%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Altcoin recipes in review
“Solana: Recipe #19”
Daily chart
Solana remains below its January 1, 2025, closing price, having endured one of the most volatile years on record, characterized by steep rallies followed by sharp reversals.
Without a disciplined, rules-based approach, capturing profits during brief upside windows has proven elusive for most holders.
In contrast, Recipe #19 for Solana has delivered a striking +60% performance delta over a simple buy-and-hold strategy during the same period, systematically locking in gains on strength and accumulating aggressively on weakness.
Even for investors with unwavering long-term conviction in a given altcoin, running a parallel Arch Public algorithm provides powerful risk mitigation and cash flow: it harvests volatility along the way while allowing the core thesis to unfold undisturbed.
Oracle Protocol return
+27.1%
Buy and hold -33.1%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Altcoin recipes in review
“XRP: Recipe #20”
Daily chart
In 2025, XRP has repeatedly dominated crypto headlines, fueled by Ripple’s partial SEC victory appeal resolution and expanding bank partnerships, yet the token remains firmly trapped in the classic altcoin pattern of sharp pumps followed by prolonged distribution and underperformance.
Recipe #20 for XRP demonstrates the power of an algorithmic approach: while a passive long-term hold sits at approximately -15% YTD as of November 2025, the same capital running the algorithm in parallel would have generated +36% returns over the identical period, effectively transforming a losing position into a net-positive outcome by systematically harvesting volatility without abandoning the core thesis.
Oracle Protocol return
+36.7%
Buy and hold -15.1%
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Results
Outperformance across any asset
BTC · ETH · SOL · XRP results by scenario
Bitcoin, 2025 year to date
Bitcoin, historical daily
Bitcoin, historical weekly
Period
January 1, 2025 to November 21, 2025
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
Time frame
1 day
1 day
1 week
Initial capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Profit and loss
$16,810
$297,930
$328,122
Profit and loss (%)
+16.8%
+297%
+328%
Realized profit and loss
$14,700
$283,822
$305,883
BTC holdings, if held to date
0.385 BTC
0.228 BTC
0.327
Current cash
$83,419
$378,155
$397,318
Cost basis
$81,067
$24,800
$26,189
Buy and hold unrealized profit and loss
-$9,269
$19,088
$19,088
Buy and hold unrealized profit and loss (%)
-9.82%
+28.9%
+28.9%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Replicate the strategy
Do it yourself: the Oracle Protocol settings behind each Bitcoin run.
Bitcoin, 2025 year to date
Algorithm: Oracle Protocol
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-2.5%
Exit threshold
3.1%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
30%
Buy below cost basis only
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 1, 2025 to November 21, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
20%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$1,000
Fixed exit trade size
$1,000
Bitcoin, historical daily
Algorithm: Oracle Protocol
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-7%
Exit threshold
4%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
300%
Buy below cost basis only
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
50%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$6,000
Fixed exit trade size
$500
Bitcoin, historical weekly
Algorithm: Oracle Protocol
Initial capital
$100,000
Long threshold
-10%
Exit threshold
7%
Only sell above cost basis
Checked
Sell profit threshold
300%
Buy below cost basis only
Checked
Time frame
1 week
Period
October 20, 2021 to November 21, 2025
Primary trade size type
Percentage
Entry trade size
10%
Exit trade size
70%
Fixed size as minimum limit
Checked
Fixed entry trade size
$9,000
Fixed exit trade size
$50,000
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
More case studies
Symbol BTC · MSTR · MARA
The Bitcoin Accumulation Algorithm
Strategy return +15.9% in “Three-leg Market Wave portfolio”
Read the case study Symbol BTC treasury
The Pioneer, Revisited
Strategy return +134.6% in “Layer 1 only: high-conviction long”
Read the case study Symbol BTC · ETH · XRP · SOL
Ride The Market Wave
Strategy return +452% in “Growing BTC with BTC”
Read the case study
See every case study
Important disclosures
Educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional. Trading stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published November 21, 2025.
Terms and conditions
Privacy policy
Cookies and trackers
Your privacy choices