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Contents
The results
The subject: Apple
The investor's dilemma
The algorithm
“Trade the chop”
“Pure accumulation”
“Capture the trend”
Side by side
Why the results differ
The real lesson
A path forward
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Case studies
AAPL
Case study: Arch Public for stocks
The most owned stock in America, finally managed
How the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities beat dollar-cost averaging on AAPL in every window we tested, from a two-year chop to a nine-year mega trend.
AAPL
Stock
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
Valued July 9, 2026
5 min read
Why this case study, and why now
Apple is the most universally held equity in America. It sits inside nearly every index fund and retirement account, and almost no one who owns it has ever made an active decision about it. We ran the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities on AAPL three ways, all starting from the same $100,000 in cash and zero shares.
Trade the chop
Daily, Jul 2024 to Jul 2026
Strategy
+59.2%
DCA
+30.4%
Pure accumulation
Daily, Jul 2024 to Jul 2026
Strategy
+41.7%
DCA
+10.3%
Capture the trend
Weekly, Jul 2017 to Jul 2026
Strategy
+607.3%
DCA
+231.4%
One algorithm, three tests. Each one beat the disciplined passive benchmark by a wide margin.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Apple, AAPL
Apple: the stock everyone owns and nobody decides about
The most valuable company in the world at roughly $4.9 trillion, and arguably the single most widely held equity in the United States. Its split-adjusted history is powerful compounding punctuated by repeated, credible-feeling crises.
2017 Split-adjusted near $37
2018 to 19 38% drawdown on the China revenue warning
2020 Pandemic crash, then the 4-for-1 split
2022 to 23 30% bear market, low near $125
2025 Worst performer in big tech, down roughly 15%
Jun 2026 Slide into the $270s off a spring high near $317
Jul 2026 All-time high of $334.68, most valuable company in the world
A decade of holding, zero decisions
The anchor problem
Everyone remembers what they paid, or the peak. In June 2026 an investor watched Apple slide from $317 to the $270s and evaluated a loss against a number in their head, not the trend on the chart.
Narrative whiplash
Apple's story flipped twice in eighteen months. Missed AI and exposed to tariffs in 2025; best pipeline in years and the top market cap in the world by July 2026. Same company, opposite conclusions.
Paralysis of the core holding
Because Apple is usually one of the largest positions in a retirement account, every decision feels enormous. Selling feels like betraying the thesis; buying more feels like concentration risk. So the default is doing nothing, forever.
Monthly DCA is the standard cure. It removes emotion and beat doing nothing in all three windows. But it buys the same dollar amount at $274 or $334, cannot tell an uptrend from a falling knife, and never sells, which means it can never turn a paper gain into money.
Market Wave Algorithm for Equities
What the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities actually does
Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm. Three jobs, run with rules instead of emotions.
Ride confirmed moves
Enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not a hunch, a headline, or a feeling that a price is too high or too low.
Exit on rules, not nerves
Where its recipe calls for it, it takes profit into strength on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding every share on principle.
Step aside cleanly
In chop and indecision it will hold cash and wait, which is exactly when human investors tend to overtrade.
The algorithm is configurable. The same logic on the same chart can work the swings and bank cash, or trade far less and build a low-cost-basis position. Scenarios 1 and 2 change only the recipe.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 1
“Trade the chop”
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 9, 2026 · Daily chart
Strategy return
+59.2%
DCA +30.4%, outperformance +28.8 percentage points
Ending value
$159,232
Realized profit, banked
$10,433
Unrealized profit, open
$48,799
Shares held
438 at $204.77 avg cost
Open full-size chart
The number to read A $204.77 basis against a stock near $316, built by systematically buying confirmed strength off dips that felt like the end of the Apple story.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 2
“Pure accumulation”
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 9, 2026 · Daily chart · Same chart, new recipe
Strategy return
+41.7%
DCA +10.3%, outperformance +31.4 percentage points
Ending value
$141,735
Realized profit
$0
Unrealized profit, open
$41,735
Shares held
380 at $206.33 avg cost
Open full-size chart
The number to read Same window, same daily chart. Only the recipe changed. Zero closed trades, and a cost basis within two dollars of Scenario 1.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Scenario 3
“Capture the trend”
Jul 2017 to Jul 2026 · Weekly chart
Strategy return
+607.3%
DCA +231.4%, outperformance +375.9 percentage points
Ending value, from $100,000
$707,301
Realized cash banked, more than double the starting capital
$212,630
Shares still held, roughly double the DCA benchmark's 987
1,893
Average cost, against a stock near $329
$120.10
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Three windows, one algorithm
AAPL results by scenario
Daily, swing recipe
Daily, accumulation
Weekly, long-term trend
Window
Jul 2024 to Jul 2026
Jul 2024 to Jul 2026
Jul 2017 to Jul 2026
Starting capital
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
Strategy ending value
$159,232
$141,735
$707,301
Strategy ROI
+59.2%
+41.7%
+607.3%
DCA benchmark ROI
+30.4%
+10.3%
+231.4%
Outperformance vs DCA
+28.8 pts
+31.4 pts
+375.9 pts
Realized profit, banked
$10,433
$0
$212,630
Unrealized profit, open
$48,799
$41,735
$394,671
Shares held at end
438
380
1,893
Average cost basis
$204.77
$206.33
$120.10
Cash on hand at end
$20,745
$21,593
$85,280
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The recipe is the product
Three different numbers do not mean one run is right and the others are noise. They are the same algorithm answering three different questions.
Work this stock's volatility?
+59.2%. $10,433 realized, $48,799 unrealized, 438 shares at $204.77.
Just own it well?
+41.7%. 0 closed trades, $78,407 deployed, 380 shares at $206.33.
Run it for the long term?
+607.3%. $212,630 realized, 1,893 shares at $120.10, $85,280 in cash.
Across nine years a dollar-cost averager banked $0 and held 987 shares. The algorithm banked $212,630 and held 1,893. The edge is not prediction. It is one emotion-free posture, chosen on purpose.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The next big cycle is already starting
In 2017 Apple was mature, widely owned, and fully understood. The bull case was boring; the bear case was credible. What followed was a roughly eightfold move through a 38% drawdown, a pandemic crash, a bear market, and a year as its peer group's worst. Almost nobody held it with a plan. That pattern is what transfers.
01
A great decade still contains terrible years
Apple's nine-year run includes 2025, when it was big tech's worst performer. Twelve months later it was the most valuable company in the world. A rule navigates that. A stomach does not.
02
Taking profit and building a position are not opposites
The weekly run banked $212,630 and still finished holding 1,893 shares at $120.10, roughly double the benchmark that never sold. Selling into strength funded buying into weakness.
03
The recipe is the product
The same algorithm, same chart, same window produced an active swing result and a zero-turnover accumulation result, within two dollars on cost basis. What you want from a position is an input, not an accident.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Rules-based automation, live on individual stocks
Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and more.
Zero custody. Your assets never leave your account.
Full control. Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time.
Rules, not reactions. The algorithm executes the plan, so neither fear nor the refusal to take a profit makes the call.
How much of your largest position is invested with its eyes closed?
Book a demo Or talk with the Concierge team
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Important disclosures
For educational purposes only. Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Arch Public never takes custody of your assets. Not investment advice.
© 2026 Arch Public. All rights reserved. Published July 21, 2026.
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